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Trump Gets Wave of Good News In Two New Polls

Updated: ELECTIONS

After a few weeks of battling against a rising tide of support for the Democratic Party’s forced candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump is beginning to see the tide turn, according to a pair of new surveys.

Two national polls released Tuesday reveal former President Trump regaining ground, reversing last week’s indications of a tight race. According to surveys from CNBC and Rasmussen, Trump is leading with margins of 2% and 5%, respectively. CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey shows Trump ahead of Harris 48% to 46%, with a substantial advantage in economic handling, preferred by more than a 2-to-1 ratio. Additionally, Trump’s standing remains strong, as the results are almost identical to CNBC’s July poll, which showed him leading President Joe Biden 45% to 43%. This suggests that Harris’s entry into the race hasn’t significantly affected his appeal among swing voters.

CNBC, in discussing that outlet’s survey, noted:

The most dramatic shift: 81% of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as their nominee, compared with just 33% who were satisfied with Biden. But that was partially offset by a 9-point gain among Republicans who are satisfied with Trump as the nominee, bringing his number to 80%.

Interest in the election rose 3 points for Democrats, but it rose 2 points for Republicans. Young voters showed far greater supporter for Harris than they did for Biden, backing the vice president now by 10 points, compared with backing Trump by 2 points in the NBC July poll. That was offset by a big swing of 12 points among voters aged 35-49 toward Trump. The age group now supports Trump by 9 points. Harris’ net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) improved from -15 in the July NBC survey to -8, but Trump’s improved about the same amount to -9.

The Rasmussen survey also shows Trump maintaining a level amount of support in a head-to-head matchup. But in a scenario where independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is on the ballot, the former president’s support increased by 3% since July to 49% while Harris and RFK lost 1% and 2%, respectively. With a margin of error of +/- 2%, President Trump is well ahead in the large survey.

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“It is less now a referendum on Trump than it is a head-to-head competition between the two candidates,” said Micah Roberts, partner at the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, who helped conduct the CNBC survey. Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research who served as the Democratic pollster, added that Harris is making up for the sins of her boss in the eyes of voters. “She’s still carrying a lot of water for the administration,” Campbell said. “She has to answer for that and define herself independently…That’s a lot of baggage to carry when you’ve got a compressed time frame against a mature campaign on Trump’s side.”

So far, however, Harris hasn’t really defined her campaign. It’s now been nearly 20 days since she became the de facto Democratic nominee and, earlier this week, the actual nominee ahead of the party’s convention later this month, and she has yet to hold a press conference where she could be asked about her policies and what she will or won’t do differently should she win in November.

The economy remains a top concern for voters, closely followed by immigration, with President Trump holding significant leads in both areas. A majority of Americans believe their financial situation would improve under a second Trump term. Additionally, Harris faces challenges, as only 48% of Democrats believe she would be a better economic steward, while 42% think it wouldn’t make a difference.