A crucial U.S. Senate seat seems to be slipping from Democrats’ grasp, putting Vice President Kamala Harris’s party at risk of losing control of the upper chamber, and it’s a development that could jeopardize the party’s chances of maintaining congressional control if former President Trump wins the White House.
New data from Emerson College in partnership with The Hill reveal that Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), the most at-risk incumbent in the 2024 cycle, trails his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Bronze Star recipient who leads Tester 48% to 46% in a direct matchup, with 5% of voters still undecided.
MONTANA POLL with @thehill
2024 US Senate Election
Tim Sheehy (R) 48%
Jon Tester (D) 46%
5% undecidedhttps://t.co/PCPb4jqH2M pic.twitter.com/AVOcnXz7gd— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 8, 2024
Tester, who is campaigning for his fourth six-year term, has been a fixture in the Senate since 2006, following eight years in the state Senate and a prior career as a farmer. He narrowly avoided defeat in both 2012 and 2018, but the Republican Party’s resurgence under President Trump seems to be a significant challenge this cycle. Trump’s early endorsement of Sheehy, who easily overcame primary opponents, has bolstered his campaign. Despite Sheehy’s fundraising struggles—reporting over $14 million raised in June and $3 million on hand—Tester has a substantial financial edge, having raised nearly $44 million with about $11 million remaining, benefitting from relatively lower advertising costs in Montana compared to larger media markets.
With the recent shift in polling, Democrats are now projected to lose control of the Senate. Pollster Larry Sabato, whose “Crystal Ball” ratings are highly regarded, currently predicts Republicans will have a better chance of securing 50 Senate seats in 2025, while Democrats are expected to hold 48 seats, with two remaining toss-ups. Montana is one of these toss-up states and may soon lean Republican.
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The race has seen substantial outside spending, and Tester’s record is likely affecting his numbers. In October 2023, for instance, he faced criticism after evading questions about his votes against additional military funding for Israel, an issue that became particularly sensitive following the deadly Hamas attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,400 Israelis and the abduction of hundreds more.
If Republicans manage to broaden their electoral map, their Senate numbers could increase even further. Although Sabato predicts that Kari Lake, a prominent conservative figure, will lose her Senate race in Arizona, a July poll showed her leading her Democratic opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego, by 2%. In Ohio, Bernie Moreno, a Trump-endorsed candidate challenging incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, has received Lake’s endorsement. Despite trailing Brown in recent polls, Sabato considers this race one of the nation’s key toss-ups, according to FiveThirtyEight.
