President Donald Trump said last week that he wasn’t considering any more military strikes on Iran before the midterm elections next month, but Trump being who he is – a master at keeping his nemeses guessing – is now hinting strikes could resume once again, apparently.
That’s according to University of Chicago political scientist and Iran war expert Robert Pape. Pape argued Saturday that military preparations, Iran’s continuing resistance and the approaching elections have created what he describes as an “escalation trap” that could push Trump toward further action before Election Day.
Trump said on October 8 that the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections,” appearing to remove the possibility of another major offensive before November 3.
But subsequent developments have raised questions about whether that pledge will hold, including reports that the administration is considering using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast weapon against heavily fortified Iranian targets.
Trump himself confirmed Thursday that the United States might need to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, where Iranian nuclear facilities are believed to be buried deep underground.
“We may have to hit it,” Trump told Newsmax, while emphasizing that he would not use nuclear weapons against Iran and does not intend to send American ground troops into the country. Trump also discussed the possibility of using the massive conventional bomb commonly known as the “Mother of All Bombs,” stressing that the weapon “is not nuclear at all” while declining to say whether he had authorized its use.
Pape, director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, has spent months warning that the conflict could become increasingly difficult for Washington to end without either accepting an unfavorable settlement or escalating militarily.
“We are in the most dangerous weeks of the escalation trap in the war,” Pape said during an October 8 interview, arguing that the period surrounding the midterms creates additional incentives for several governments involved in the conflict.
Pape pointed to what he described as “three clocks” converging around the election, including additional American military forces moving toward the region and growing pressure created by energy supplies and the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz.
A third U.S. aircraft carrier is expected in the region near the end of October, according to Pape, while additional Marines have also been moving toward the Middle East. The military buildup does not prove Trump has decided to launch another attack, but it gives the president additional options if diplomacy fails or Iran takes actions Washington considers unacceptable.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have also discussed the possibility of renewed military action against Iran, according to Axios, although Trump reportedly became more hesitant after initially showing interest.
The timing is politically complicated because Israel holds elections October 27, just one week before Americans vote in the midterms, placing both Trump and Netanyahu under intense domestic political pressure.
Trump acknowledged Thursday that Israeli officials would like him involved in Netanyahu’s reelection campaign, though he has not announced an endorsement. Asked whether he trusts Netanyahu, Trump responded, “I don’t trust anybody, honestly,” before adding, “In the world of politics I don’t trust anybody.”
Trump nevertheless described his relationship with Netanyahu as “very good” and praised what he called their “very successful” military partnership against Iran.
Pape’s analysis challenges the assumption that electoral considerations necessarily make military escalation less likely, arguing that Trump may conclude that another highly visible operation would strengthen perceptions of American military power rather than create additional political problems.
