If you’re a Republican and you’ve been paying any attention at all to polling over the past couple of months, you’re probably depressed. That’s because the vast majority of them showed a big, blue wave coming to Congress next month. Turns out, though, your deeper instincts about polling were right: They were fake, designed specifically to discourage you from making the trip to your local polling place and pulling GOP levers.
RealClearPolitics co-founder and President Tom Bevan said Friday that recent polling in Texas and Kansas could be an early indication that surveys have been overstating Democratic strength, as Republicans attempt to close an enthusiasm gap with less than three weeks remaining before the midterm elections.
Appearing on Newsmax, Bevan pointed to new InsiderAdvantage surveys showing Republican Senate candidates narrowly ahead in both states after earlier polling had repeatedly shown Democrats tied or leading. In Texas, Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton registered 49 percent support compared with 48 percent for Democratic nominee James Talarico among likely voters in the latest InsiderAdvantage survey.
The result represented a notable contrast with several recent Texas surveys, including a University of Texas poll showing Talarico ahead 50 percent to 47 percent and a Marist survey giving the Democrat a 47-45 advantage.
Other September and October surveys have similarly shown Talarico with narrow advantages, leaving him ahead by 2.3 percentage points, 48.1 percent to 45.8 percent, in the RealClearPolitics polling average through October 14. This is red, red Texas, by the way.
Bevan suggested the latest result could indicate that Republican voters who had been less engaged earlier in the campaign are beginning to consolidate behind the GOP as Election Day approaches. But I’m ‘suggesting’ that the previous polls were garbage.
“Republicans are starting to come home in some of these particularly red states,” Bevan said. “Last two polls out of Texas were good. Good poll out of Kansas, as you mentioned, and a couple other states where it looks like Republicans are starting to perk up a little bit.”
He also pointed to President Donald Trump’s campaign appearances in Texas, Nebraska, Ohio, Alaska, and Montana as part of an effort to energize MAGA voters and protect the GOP’s Senate majority. “If Republicans just turn out, they’re going to win all those races,” Bevan said.
Texas has attracted extraordinary national attention because Democrats have not won a statewide election there since 1994 and have not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988.
Trump carried Texas by 13.6 percentage points in 2024, making the polling showing Talarico ahead or only slightly behind seem…fantastical. Also, Paxton, the former Texas attorney general, has already won multiple statewide elections.
Kansas is showing a similar late movement, with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall taking 48 percent against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton’s 47 percent in the newest InsiderAdvantage survey. That represented a two-point shift from an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted just days earlier that showed Hamilton leading Marshall 48 percent to 47 percent.
The overall Kansas polling average remains exceptionally close, with Marshall at 46 percent and Hamilton at 45.7 percent through October 14, a margin of just three-tenths of a percentage point. Again, Kansas is reliably red.
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, making the unexpectedly competitive race another important test of whether this year’s political environment can overcome the state’s longstanding Republican advantage.
Trump carried Kansas by more than 16 percentage points in 2024, while Marshall defeated Democrat Barbara Bollier by more than 11 points in his 2020 Senate victory. Bevan has previously warned that relatively small polling errors could substantially alter the Senate map because so many competitive races are separated by only a few percentage points.
“If the polls are overstating Democratic support by two points, or Republicans outperform by two points, they will keep the Senate,” Bevan said during a Fox News appearance earlier this month.
Let’s face it: The polling in America during the Trump era is as dishonest as the media outlets conducting and publishing them. Get off your couch, go vote red, and let’s keep America heading in the right direction rather than endure another two years of Democrat hoax impeachments.
