Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), a senior figure in the Senate majority and a longtime GOP heavyweight and a party leader, suddenly appears vulnerable in his home state. A new poll released Wednesday by Victory Insights shows the 72-year-old Cornyn facing a potentially competitive challenge if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton enters next year’s Republican primary.
Declining enthusiasm for Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002, has been a recurring issue throughout his fourth six-year term. Many Texas Republicans are seeking a voice they believe better aligns with their deeply conservative state. Cornyn’s favorability among Republicans suffered significantly in 2022 after he played a key role in negotiating a bipartisan gun reform bill. During three months of public debate on the issue, his disapproval rating climbed to 50%, up from 39%, according to the Texas Tribune.
The latest poll of 500 Republican primary voters, conducted from January 4 to 6, highlights some of Sen. Cornyn’s most significant vulnerabilities in facing a Republican electorate that has shifted dramatically toward MAGA-aligned values since he first took office. Even without Paxton in the race, Cornyn trails a generic Republican challenger by 4%, with 25% of voters still undecided. “This is a very weak showing for an incumbent,” the poll’s authors noted.
If Paxton enters the race, he begins with an 8-point lead over Cornyn, with a similarly large portion of Republican voters remaining uncommitted. The poll also asked respondents to identify which “type” of Republican they considered themselves, offering four options: “Donald Trump MAGA Republican” (58% said this applies to them); “Constitutional Conservative” (50.1% said this label applies); “Traditional Republican” (15.2%); and “Moderate Republican” (18.1%).
“It doesn’t take a genius to spot the trend here. Voters on the more moderate or traditional end of the spectrum tend to prefer Cornyn, while more conservative or Trump-aligned voters tend to prefer Paxton. The issue for Cornyn is that Donald Trump MAGA Republicans and Constitutional Conservatives together make up 69% of the electorate, and Paxton dominates among those types,” the authors of the poll noted.
? 2026 Texas Senate GOP Primary
Ken Paxton – 42%
John Cornyn – 34%
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Undecided – 24%@VictoryPolling | LVs | January 4-6https://t.co/EpJglnOcQj pic.twitter.com/BwpbwitPwm— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 8, 2025
Following the elections, Cornyn unsuccessfully challenged colleague John Thune (R-SD) to succeed Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as majority leader after it became clear Republicans would control the Senate. Thune’s decisive victory highlighted Cornyn’s struggles to maintain the confidence of his fellow caucus members.
Perhaps recognizing the urgency of his situation in Texas, Cornyn has launched a local media blitz, emphasizing his recent achievements, such as securing nearly $60 million in federal funds for the state. At a recent press conference, he stressed the importance of helping President-elect Donald Trump “hit the ground running” by advancing his sweeping America First agenda.
Meanwhile, Paxton, 62, has built a strong reputation as the state’s top law enforcement official. He has earned praise for his tough stance on illegal immigration, including his role—alongside Gov. Greg Abbott—in orchestrating the strategy to bus migrants to deep-blue cities, forcing Democratic leaders to confront the crisis exacerbated by President Joe Biden’s policies. Paxton further bolstered his conservative credentials in November by celebrating his office’s 100th lawsuit against the Biden administration.
