For weeks now, I’ve had the urge to slam the panic button over next week’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District — even though the rational part of my brain keeps reminding me that Trump won the district by 22 points just last year. Maybe it’s lingering PTSD from Virginia’s gubernatorial race, but there’s something about the surge of AWFLs (that’s Affluent White Female Liberals) taking over the Democratic Party that’s been setting off every alarm bell in sight.
The battle to replace retiring GOP Rep. Mark Green — who left Congress earlier this year for the private sector — features Republican Matt Van Epps, a former Tennessee Department of General Services commissioner, squaring off against Democrat Aftyn Behn, the Nashville-hating state lawmaker already earning the nickname “the AOC of Tennessee.”
It turns out, according to an Emerson College poll released Wednesday, that there is good reason for the GOP to hit that panic button good and hard:
Emerson poll | 11/22-11/24 LV
Tennessee’s 7th congressional special election (Trump +22)
(Leaners pushed)
?Matt Van Epps 49.4%
?Aftyn Behn 47.0%
Others 3.5%https://t.co/o2cJWKhfXZ— Politics & Poll Tracker ? (@PollTracker2024) November 26, 2025
Yes, the usual poll caveats apply: it’s one poll, it could be an outlier, Emerson’s track record isn’t exactly stellar, and polls in general are notoriously shaky. Still, there might be a little smoke indicating a real fire.
Despite Aftyn Behn’s open disdain for her own community, her socialist rambling, and her eagerness to obstruct ICE agents who are simply doing their jobs, she’s somehow clawed her way to within just 2 points of Van Epps with only days left before voters head to the polls. Democrats have gone all-in on this race, reportedly dumping millions into it as they try to squeeze out one more win on the heels of their 2025 victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City.
Turnout is the name of the game here. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling, noted, “The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home.”
And that’s not exactly encouraging for the GOP, which chronically struggles to energize its voters in special and off-year elections. Democrats, meanwhile, seem downright thrilled to show up for the most outrageous, far-left candidates they can scrape together. See: Jay Jones, Virginia’s attorney general-elect.
Early voting — which began November 12 — appears to be tilting in Behn’s favor:
“Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”
“There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%,” Kimball added.
President Trump, who perhaps caught wind of the troubling polling numbers, took to Truth Social on Tuesday night to urge voters to turn out for Van Epps ahead of Wednesday’s early voting deadline:
I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person. You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. Polls close at 12 P.M. NOON in most of TN-07, and every vote counts. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 12 P.M., STAY IN LINE, AND THEY MUST LET YOU VOTE! TN-07: Early Voting ends November 26th, and Election Day is December 2nd. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!
When you look at what’s motivating TN-07 voters, the picture is clear: the economy dominates at 38 percent — and frankly, Republicans should treat that number like it’s written in flashing neon. After that comes housing affordability at 15 percent, healthcare and the ever-vague “threats to democracy” tied at 13 percent, with immigration at a surprisingly low 6 percent, and crime and education at 5 percent each.
If the GOP wants to stop getting blindsided in these races, it needs to remember that voters are thinking with their wallets first — and elections lately have proven that over and over again. It is, along with mass deportations, the issue that got Trump elected in the first place.
