Two high-profile special elections in Florida appear to be swinging in the GOP’s favor, as Republican operatives report “booming” turnout from Trump-aligned voters eager to help expand the party’s narrow majority in the U.S. House.
In Florida’s 6th Congressional District, State Sen. Randy Fine is running to replace former Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), who now serves as a national security advisor in President Donald Trump’s administration. Despite the district’s strong R+14 lean, party leaders have expressed concern in recent weeks that Fine, a first-time congressional candidate, was underestimating the race. They pointed to his underwhelming fundraising compared to Democratic opponent Josh Weil as a potential vulnerability.
Michael Pruser from Decision Desk HQ is reporting that voter turnout suggests a successful night for Fine. “We’re three hours into election day voting in FL-06, Randy Fine is getting everything he could have dreamed of, and more,” the election forecaster wrote on X. “Turnout is booming, and Republicans are coming out en masse. Exactly 19,000 ballots were cast today through 10 am ET, and the composite of these ballots is a whopping R+36. This pushes the overall current electorate to R +13.04%, and we are likely going to sail upwards toward R+18% by the end of the day.”
Voters in the eastern Florida district—spanning from Ocala to the towns just north of Daytona Beach—have been inundated with a surge of outside spending in recent weeks, as Democrats attempt to cast the race as a referendum on President Trump. During a telephone town hall on Monday, Fine warned that if Weil wins, it would embolden Democrats to obstruct House business at every turn. “Democrats are mad,” he said, the BBC reported. “They’re going to do whatever it takes to grind Donald Trump’s agenda to a halt.”
Weil, a first-time candidate, has raised an impressive $10 million—dwarfing the $1 million brought in by Fine. Recent public polls showed Weil narrowing the gap, trailing Fine by only a few points—an alarming development for Republicans in a district that President Trump won by 30 points last November. In response, Trump joined Fine for a telephone town hall last Thursday, urging his MAGA base to mobilize friends and family to get out and vote for Fine.
