Early voting is coming to a close in two critical special elections in Florida, with turnout numbers prompting both parties to keep a close watch as Tuesday’s election day approaches. The contests in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts—previously represented by high-profile Republicans Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz—have captured national attention, particularly as Democrats aim to gain ground in traditionally conservative areas.
In the 1st District, Republican candidate Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer and a Trump-endorsed contender, is challenging Democrat Gay Valimont, who ran against Gaetz in 2024. Despite the district’s strong Republican lean, Democrats are banking on vibrant grassroots fundraising and a low-turnout environment to potentially narrow the gap. Early voting data from the Florida Division of Elections shows that Republicans currently hold a 17-point lead in the 1st District, indicating that Patronis remains in a commanding position heading into election day.
In contrast, the 6th District is emerging as a more competitive contest than expected. Republican State Senator Randy Fine, who also has Trump’s endorsement, is facing Democrat Josh Weil, a school teacher whose campaign has attracted national liberal support. Early voting data shows that Republicans lead by roughly 9 points—a margin much narrower than in the 1st District—and GOP insiders are watching the race with growing concern.
Data reveals that in the 6th District, 47,403 Republicans voted early or by mail, while 38,107 Democrats did the same. Additionally, 13,766 ballots were submitted by independents, and 1,659 votes were cast by third-party or minor-party registrants, according to Newsweek.
A St. Pete Polls survey showed Fine with a narrow 4-point lead over Weil, which falls within the 4.9-point margin of error. For a district that has long leaned Republican, these close numbers raise concerns that Democrats could benefit from any last-minute GOP missteps or a surge in independent turnout. The vacancies occurred after Gaetz resigned from Congress following his nomination by President Trump for Attorney General—a nomination he later withdrew. Meanwhile, Waltz left his seat to serve as Trump’s National Security Advisor during the administration’s second term.
