On Wednesday, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten highlighted factors indicating that former President Donald Trump may defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in November. Trump and Harris are currently in a tight race, with the former president holding a narrow lead over the vice president in six of the top seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics averages.
On “CNN News Central,” Enten pointed out that voter dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, and high Republican registration numbers are all indicators that favor a Trump victory. “Just 28% of Americans, voters think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. And I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay, what’s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25%,” Enten said.
“That 25% looks an awful bit like that 28% up there. It doesn’t look anything, anything like this 42% [average when the incumbent party won] doesn’t look anything like this 28%. So the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins,” he continued.
“In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” he added. “They always lose when just 28% of the country believes that the country is on the right track.” Enten also highlighted that Biden’s low approval rating could historically indicate a loss for Harris, as previous presidents with net negative approval ratings have not been succeeded by candidates from their own party.
“Now, we don’t know if Kamala Harris is going to succeed Joe Biden, but we know back in 2008, George W. Bush’s approval rating was down in the 20’s. Did a Republican succeed George W. Bush? No. How ’bout in 1968? Lyndon Baines Johnson, his net approval rating was negative. Did a Democrat succeed Lyndon Baines Johnson? No,” the data reporter said. “How ’bout in ’52 Harry S. Truman, his approval rating was in the 20’s, if not the upper teens.”
“Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory, no … Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, succeeded Harry S. Truman,” he continued. “So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point.” Furthermore, Enten stated that Republicans have been making gains against Democrats in party registration within the battleground states, specifically highlighting Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
“So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk. And so the bottom line is if Republicans win, come next week, Donald Trump wins comes next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” he said. “We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
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