If the New York Times publishes a poll showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied with just 12 days remaining, the Trump campaign is likely to feel optimistic. The results of the Gray Lady’s final survey, conducted in partnership with Siena College, show both candidates deadlocked at 48%. Writers suggest this figure reflects a nation “evenly divided” regarding their preference for the White House.
Some observers have examined the underlying numbers, comparing them to data from four years ago, when candidate Joe Biden led President Trump by 9%. At that time, Trump’s support among white voters was just +6, and election forecaster Nate Silver assigned Biden an 89% chance of victory. Fast forward to today, and Trump’s lead among white voters, who constituted 71% of the electorate in 2022 according to NPR, has increased to +11.
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3% and was conducted between October 20th and 23rd, gathering responses from 2,563 likely voters. Since the Times’ last survey, completed on October 6th, Trump’s topline number has increased by 2 points, while Harris has dropped by 1 point. Additionally, there’s more troubling news for Harris: in states where Jill Stein, the third-party Green Party candidate, appears on the ballot, President Trump gains 3 points and leads Harris 47% to 46%.
?? Final National poll by NYT/Siena
2-WAY
? Trump: 48% [+2]
? Harris: 48% [-1]
——
FULL FIELD
? Trump: 47% [+3]
? Harris: 46% [-1]
? Stein: 2%
? Other: 2%[+/- change vs 9/29-10/6]
——
#1 (3.0/3.0) | 2,563 LV | 10-20-23https://t.co/XvnBVTKZNo— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2024
This scenario could spell trouble for Harris in swing states where progressives, frustrated by her lackluster support for the Palestinian cause, have prompted thousands of voters to consider remaining uncommitted in the race. Stein is on the ballot in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which constitute the “blue wall” that Democrats have traditionally relied on to secure 270 electoral votes. Michigan, in particular, has been a challenging state for Harris, given its significant Arab-American population and the progressive college student demographic in populous Ann Arbor. President Trump has made multiple visits to the state, including to the capital city, Detroit, in an effort to erode Harris’s lead among minority voters.
Sensing danger, the Democratic National Committee released a new ad last week titled “Danger,” which Newsweek reports aims to inform voters about the risks of supporting Stein. The ad features dystopian imagery showing Stein’s face morphing into Trump’s, accompanied by the message, “A vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump.” On Thursday, Quinnipiac University released its latest Michigan poll, indicating that Stein and progressive independent candidate Cornell West are each siphoning off 1% of the vote from Harris.
The Times poll is countered by a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday, which shows Trump leading Harris 47% to 45% nationally. This suggests that the Times may be underestimating the Republican silent majority of supporters, who are notoriously difficult to gauge.
