What Happens If Biden Drops Out of the 2024 Race?

In the dynamic arena of American politics, the potential withdrawal of a sitting president from an electoral race is nearly unprecedented and would undoubtedly create a seismic shift in the political landscape. The recent presidential debate has intensified discussions around President Joe Biden’s campaign, prompting speculation about the implications should he choose to drop out of the 2024 race. Here’s a detailed look at what could unfold.

Legal and Procedural Steps

If President Biden were to withdraw from the race, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) would play a pivotal role in selecting a replacement nominee. According to party rules, the DNC is empowered to reconvene in a special meeting to choose a new candidate. This process involves the DNC members, who represent various states and territories, casting their votes in accordance with the party’s complex delegate system.

Potential Candidates

The sudden vacancy would open the field to other prominent Democrats who might have previously deferred their ambitions due to Biden’s incumbency. Figures such as Vice President Kamala Harris, who would be a natural front-runner due to her current position and visibility, could step forward. Other possible contenders might include influential senators, governors, and former presidential candidates who have maintained significant public profiles and support bases within the party.

Electoral Implications

The introduction of a new Democratic candidate would undoubtedly reset the dynamics of the election. Campaign strategies would need swift recalibration, and the Democratic party would need to consolidate quickly to ensure voter base unity. The new candidate would have less time to campaign, making it critical to leverage existing networks and resources effectively.

Impact on Party Unity and Voter Sentiment

Replacing a nominee mid-race could lead to divisions within the party, as different factions might support different potential candidates. Moreover, such a dramatic change could disillusion some voters, potentially affecting voter turnout and enthusiasm, which are crucial for winning elections.

The Republican Response

On the opposite side, the Republican candidate, who would likely still be Donald Trump if he remains in the race, would need to adjust their campaign to address the new Democratic nominee. This situation could either be an opportunity or a challenge, depending on the new nominee’s public perception and political prowess.

Historical Precedents and Comparisons

While there’s no direct precedent for a sitting president dropping out of a reelection race in modern U.S. history, there have been instances where primary candidates withdrew or changed. These situations often led to intense party negotiations and strategic shifts. Analyzing these can provide insights into potential strategies and outcomes.

Conclusion

The possibility of President Biden withdrawing from the 2024 race, while currently speculative, raises numerous questions about the procedural, strategic, and political ramifications. It underscores the unpredictable nature of political campaigns and the importance of robust party infrastructure capable of handling such unprecedented scenarios. The coming weeks or months could be pivotal in setting the course for the Democratic Party’s future and, by extension, the broader American political landscape.

Former Fox News host Megyn Kelly, meanwhile, believes that the Democratic Party elites are panicking due to President Joe Biden’s cognitive decline. She thinks that following his poor debate performance, the party leaders are considering replacing him with a younger candidate.

“We are officially halfway through 2024…and the big question is whether President Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee by the end of this week. We know the media revolt against him is well underway. Paper after paper is suddenly reporting on the story that has been obvious to just about everyone with eyes and ears for months, and let’s be honest, years now. Joe Biden is struggling and his age has caught up with him. It’s not a pleasant story to report on. No one’s enjoying watching this. But we’ve been forced to by Jill Biden and the cabal around him and by the candidate himself,” she said on her Sirius XM podcast.