According to recent Gallup data, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats has dropped to its lowest level since Gallup started tracking continuous party identification in 2004, with only 23% of surveyed individuals identifying as Democrats. Conversely, Republican identification stands at 25%. The survey also noted a record-high number of Americans identifying as independents, with 51% not aligning with any political party.
Historically, Democrats have usually held an advantage over Republicans regarding party identification during election cycles. For instance, in June 2016, when Donald J. Trump was elected president, 47% of respondents identified as Democrats, compared to 42% as Republicans. The gap was even wider in 2008, with 52% identifying as Democrats and only 40% as Republicans.
According to Gallup, Republican identification reached its lowest at 20% in October 2013. Before the recent record low, Democratic identification dipped to 24% in September of both 2022 and 2023 during President Biden’s term. As of the latest data from June, President Biden’s approval rating was 38%. His recent performance in the presidential debate, perceived as cognitively impaired, has raised concerns within his party, prompting fears that his candidacy might significantly advantage Trump in the upcoming election.
According to a new national poll conducted after last week’s presidential debate, former President Trump has taken the lead over President Biden in a potential 2024 election rematch. This follows Biden’s rough performance during Thursday’s face-to-face showdown between the two major party contenders.
In a USA Today/Suffolk University survey conducted Friday through Sunday and released on Tuesday, Trump has 41% support among registered voters nationwide, while Biden has 38%. The Democratic incumbent in the White House and his Republican predecessor were tied at 37% in the previous USA Today/Suffolk University poll, which was conducted in May.
Biden, who, at age 81, is the oldest president in the nation’s history, is facing a challenging phase in his campaign for a second term in the White House. His hesitant delivery and unsteady responses during the debate have caused concern within the Democratic Party. This has led to calls from political pundits, editorial writers, and some party politicians and donors for Biden to consider stepping aside as the party’s 2024 candidate, Fox News reports.
While Trump’s lead in the new survey falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, there are concerning indications for Biden. In the latest poll released on Monday, 41% of Democrats surveyed expressed a desire to see Biden replaced at the top of the Democratic Party ticket. Just 14 percent of those surveyed want Trump replaced.
“There’s no question the debate sent out shock waves across the political landscape,” Suffolk Political Research Center director David Paleologos said. “Democrats in the poll are offering tough love to President Biden by saying to him, ‘You’ve served us well, but try to see yourself last Thursday night through our eyes. Hold your head up high, it’s time to go.’” According to the poll, Trump is now the preferred second choice for voters who currently support third-party or independent candidates, leading with 25% compared to Biden’s 17%. This marks a shift from late last year, when Biden held the advantage.
“After Thursday night’s debate, the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll measured Biden’s poor debate performance and the resulting landscape shift that has essentially prevented those third-party voters from coming around to Biden,” Paleologos told Fox News. “In fact, the debate produced a group of voters who are now not comfortable with voting for Biden as either a first or second choice.” Trump also holds a major “enthusiasm” gap, with 59 percent excited to vote for him versus just 29 percent for Biden.
In the midst of the busy political climate leading up to the 2024 Presidential election, AtlasIntel, known for its accurate predictions in 2020, has published a new poll showing Trump ahead of Biden. AtlasIntel conducted a poll that showed Trump leading Biden by 5.2 points in a full-ballot estimate. This marks an increase from a February poll by the same agency, which had Trump leading by 2 points.
They correctly forecast the popular vote in 2020 but also accurately reflected the sentiments in 2022. Their latest data indicates that Trump is leading with 45.5% compared to Biden’s 40.3%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. securing 10% of the vote as a third-party candidate.