In the midst of the busy political climate leading up to the 2024 Presidential election, AtlasIntel, known for its accurate predictions in 2020, has published a new poll showing former President Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden. The forecast comes at a crucial time as there is growing public concern about Biden’s cognitive health and suitability for office, particularly after his debate with Trump.

Months of unease among the electorate have raised questions about Biden’s ability to fulfill the demands of the presidency. These concerns have intensified following Thursday’s lackluster debate performance, which many viewed as subdued compared to Trump’s commanding presence. The debate has sparked heated discussions within the Democratic Party, with nearly half of its members now expressing doubts about Biden’s candidacy.

AtlasIntel, known for their accurate insights, conducted a poll that showed Trump leading Biden by 5.2 points in a full-ballot estimate. This marks an increase from a February poll by the same agency, which had Trump leading by 2 points. They not correctly forecaset the popular vote in 2020 but also accurately reflected the sentiments in 2022. Their latest data indicates that Trump is leading with 45.5% compared to Biden’s 40.3%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. securing 10% of the vote as a third-party candidate.

Other findings from the poll included 56.3% disapprove of Biden’s performance as President while only 39.7% approve. 52.5% said they evaluated Biden’s performance as “bad/terrible,” 29.4% said “excellent/good,” and 17.6% said “regular.”

In the aftermath of the debate, a retreat at Camp David was quickly organized, bringing together Biden’s closest family and advisors to strategize and bolster his campaign. The meeting aimed to mitigate the fallout and stabilize his campaign amid growing public skepticism and internal party doubts. According to AtlasIntel, 48% of Americans now believe Biden should withdraw from the race, a stark increase post-debate. However, only 9.3% think there is a high chance Biden will actually drop out.

The president and First Lady Jill Biden joined their children and grandchildren late on Saturday. “So far, the party’s top leaders have offered public support for Biden, including in tweets posted by former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. Senior congressional Democrats, including Reps. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Jim Clyburn of South Carolina and Nancy Pelosi of California, have privately expressed concerns about his viability, said two sources apprised of those discussions, even as they all publicly back the president,” NBC reported.

NBC added: “One Democratic House member who believes Biden should drop out of the race — but has yet to call for that publicly — told NBC News that three colleagues expressed the same sentiment to him during votes on the House floor Friday.” House Democratic leaders are publicly supporting the president, but privately, they are expressing doubts about his chances against Trump.

NBC noted further:

At the same time, there is an understanding among top Democrats that Biden should be given space to determine next steps. They believe only the president, in consultation with his family, can decide whether to move forward or to end his campaign early — and that he won’t respond well to being pushed.

“The decision-makers are two people — it’s the president and his wife,” said one source familiar with the situation, NBC reported. The source noted further: “Anyone who doesn’t understand how deeply personal and familial this decision will be isn’t knowledgeable about the situation.” One source told NBC that the only person who has any sway at all with the president his the first lady. “The only person who has ultimate influence with him is the first lady,” that person told NBC. “If she decides there should be a change of course, there will be a change of course.” The Biden’s subsequently decided that he would remain in the race.

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Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.