Former President Donald Trump is polling surprisingly well in New York, according to recent polls which could require Democrats to defend the state they historically took for granted. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won the Democratic stronghold by 23 points. However, current polls show that Trump is within single digits of Biden for the 2024 election.
While the former president is not expected to seriously compete for the state, Republicans are hopeful that Trump’s popularity could improve the chances of their down-ballot candidates. This mirrors the GOP’s success in the 2022 midterm elections, which saw gains partly due to former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin’s (R-N.Y.) strong performance at the top of the ticket. Such dynamics could present a more challenging election cycle for New York Democrats than anticipated, the Daily Caller reports.
“The highest taxes in America throupled with self-inflicted crime and migrant crises are rinsing much of the blue out of the state, at least attitudinally,” GOP political consultant William F. B. O’Reilly told the Daily Caller. “This dynamic is forcing Democrats to spend tens of millions of dollars in a state they took for granted just four years ago.”
According to a May Emerson College/The Hill/PIX11 poll, Biden is leading Trump by seven points in a head-to-head matchup in New York. In a five-way contest, Trump trails Biden by six points, as indicated by the same poll. Additionally, a New York Times/Siena College poll from May shows Trump nine points behind Biden. This is a significant tightening compared to June 2023, when a NYT/Siena poll had Biden leading by over 20 points in New York, as noted by the Caller.
“Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement.
Trump’s recent campaign appearances in the Bronx, Harlem, and Manhattan have garnered overwhelmingly positive responses and large crowds, even from Democrats who are now shifting their support away from Biden. “New York might be a blue state, but it’s not AOC-progressive blue, it’s blue-collar blue,” David Laska, director of communications for the New York Republican Party, told the outlet.
After Trump’s rally in the Bronx last month, Trump may have reshaped the battleground ahead of the next presidential election, according to CNN’s data expert Harry Enten. Trump expressed confidence in winning New York—a state that has not favored a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan 44 years ago.
Speaking openly on the progressive news network a day later, Enten disclosed the impact of Trump’s rally in Kratona Park, indicating a shift in voter trends that could pose a challenge for Biden. “Look, this is Donald Trump’s hometown paper, the New York Post. He got the headline that he wanted out of this, and this is something that Trump is so important to him. But it’s more than that,” he said (see video below).
The 2020 election results revealed that Biden won the precinct by only 69 points, marking a significant decrease from Hillary Clinton’s margin. “This is a sign of the Hispanic movement that we saw last cycle, right? Where we saw, although Hispanics still favored the Democratic candidate in Joe Biden, they were less likely to favor him than they did Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama both times. And it’s not just there that happened,” Enton continued.
According to CNN data, a significant shift in Hispanic voter support is emerging across the United States, affecting key electoral regions from Southeast Florida to Southern Texas, and extending to Los Angeles. Enton notes that Biden’s previously strong 25-point lead among Hispanic voters during the 2020 election cycle has drastically narrowed to just seven points.
WATCH:
‘UPTOWN FUNK’ — “Trump got the headline he wanted out of this” says CNN Data Reporter who adds Trump’s Bronx rally could spell trouble for Biden pic.twitter.com/ypwBQNwMIF
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) May 24, 2024