Xavier Becerra won the California governor’s race Tuesday night, beating Republican Steve Hilton by a margin of roughly 59.8% to 40.2%, according to early vote totals. The Associated Press called the race the moment polls closed at 8 p.m., without counting a single ballot. Because California.
To understand how Becerra got here, you have to understand how spectacularly the Democratic Party nearly blew this. Back in spring, Becerra was sitting in sixth place, struggling to qualify for a debate stage. His resume, which includes stints as California attorney general, U.S. congressman, and Biden’s health secretary, was described by his own side as “impressive but uninspiring.” That’s Democrat for “boring, but at least he hasn’t done anything horrible yet.”
Then the frontrunner, Eric Swalwell, imploded. The Bay Area congressman, married with three children, suspended his campaign in mid-April and quit the House entirely after multiple women publicly accused him of sexual assault. He denied wrongdoing beyond what he called personal failings. With Swalwell gone, Democrats went scrambling for someone, anyone, with a pulse and a clean record, and Becerra suddenly looked like a genius for simply existing. California governor’s race results, where you can read more about how the whole mess unfolded.
After Swalwell’s exit, Becerra still had to get past billionaire Tom Steyer, who reportedly dropped more than $200 million on the race. Two hundred million dollars, and he lost to the guy who couldn’t get on a debate stage in February. Steyer should ask for a refund.
Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, ran a genuinely strong policy campaign. He had President Trump’s endorsement, a plan for $3 gas, $73 car registration, no income taxes on the first $150,000, an end to the high-speed rail disaster, and a push to slash the regulations strangling energy production. In a final message to voters, Hilton filmed himself overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge, pointing out that millions of Californians and countless businesses have been fleeing the state. “It’s not because of anything to do with California,” he said. “It’s to do with our government.” Hard to argue with that, but California Democrats don’t do hard arguments.
The math was always brutal for Hilton. Democrats hold a 45% to 25% voter registration advantage in the state, and Becerra spent most of the campaign framing himself as a human lawsuit against President Trump, leaning on his record of suing the federal government during his time as attorney general. Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio called Becerra “the California comeback kid” and said, “You gotta remember, for months we were talking about how we might not even have a Democrat to vote for. That was a real scenario back then.” Yes, the bar was “please, just find us a Democrat.” Becerra cleared it.
Becerra will inherit a state where 56% of likely voters say California is on the wrong track, 44% have considered leaving, housing costs are through the roof, homelessness is everywhere, and the budget is structurally broken. His policy proposals have been, by his own party’s admission, light on specifics. Democratic strategist Elizabeth Ashford says his working-class background will put affordability front and center, which sounds great, except California has had this exact conversation after every gubernatorial election for thirty years.
Becerra is scheduled to take office January 4, 2027, succeeding Gavin Newsom. Maviglio promised it would be “a radical departure from the three-ring circus game show that we’ve had in the governor’s office for the last eight years.” So California traded the entertaining disaster for the boring one. Progress.
