Okay, so we all know that the ‘party in power’ in the White House tends to lose congressional seats during the midterms. That means, of course, that Republicans are likely to lose seats, and even control, over one or both chambers of Congress this midterm cycle.
But there are some historic differences this cycle that have not existed for a century, if ever. For one, Republican state redistricting has given the GOP a distinct advantage heading into this midterm cycle. For another, Donald Trump is still in the White House and he’s planning on a ‘get out the vote’ first-ever GOP midterm convention. That’ll help.
That’s the House. Now for more on control of the Senate, here’s something from The Hill:
Democrats are competitive in six key Senate battlegrounds, but Republicans still hold the edge in the fight for the upper chamber, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena.
The New York Times/Siena Polls found Democrats leading the Senate races in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is battling Republican Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and in Maine, where progressive Graham Platner hopes to oust Sen. Susan Collins (R).
Cooper boasts the biggest lead among the six battlegrounds surveyed, with 50 percent to Whatley’s 43 percent. Platner, at 49 percent, was up 2 points over Collins.
Democrat James Talarico and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are tied at 47 percent each in Texas, where Democrats are relishing the fact that the controversial prosecutor got the GOP nod over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R).
Democrats were competitive in three more states, but trailed Republicans by slim margins.
In Iowa, Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is 2 points behind President Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R) seat, with 46 percent and 48 percent, respectively.
Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola is just 2 points behind incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in a hypothetical Senate showdown, with 45 percent and 47 percent, respectively. The Last Frontier’s primary is in mid-August.
And in Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is 3 points behind Sen. Jon Husted (R), with 47 percent and 50 percent, respectively. Along with Alaska and Maine, it’s one of just a few true toss-ups in the high-stakes fight for Senate control.
If I were forced to guess, I'd say that Dems’ most likely path to a Senate majority is to hold all current seats, and flip NC, ME, OH, and AK.
But Texas might, might get interesting if Latino realignment really comes through. I'm skeptical on IA and NE. Very skeptical on MT.
— Hunter??? (@StatisticUrban) June 11, 2026
Now look, polling being what it has been since Donald Trump hit the political scene aside, there are a couple of ways to look at this reporting. I don’t see any path – none whatsoever – for that goofball Talerico to beat Paxton in Texas, especially since Paxton has Trump’s blessing. And against, this is Texas.
I also believe more is going to come out about Nazi Tattoo Man in Maine, so I expect Collins to fairly easily win her race. Iowa will be Iowa and that’s going to go to the GOP. Ditto for Ohio, which has become solidly red over the past three election cycles (like Florida). If there are any flips, I could see Cooper taking Tillis’ seat, but that would be a wash, because Tillis is a RINO and he’s not going to do jack stuff for Trump the rest of his term, which ends in January. Also, Cooper’s ‘moderate’ stance isn’t going to play well at all with the Democrats’ rising left socialist faction.
The GOP holds a 53-47 majority, which means Democrats need a net gain of four seats to dominate the upper chamber.
