With just days left before the 2024 presidential election, a significant shift in the electoral forecast has drawn attention. RealClearPolitics, a prominent political analysis and polling aggregation site has moved New Hampshire from the “Lean Democrat” category to the more uncertain “Toss-Up” status, which is good news for former President Donald Trump.
This growing uncertainty for the Democratic ticket adds pressure to an already tight race as both campaigns rush to secure key battleground states. New Hampshire has long been regarded as a small but influential player in presidential elections, known for its independent-minded voters who often swing between parties.
According to RealClearPolitics’ latest forecast, the Granite State’s four electoral votes have now been classified as a toss-up. This is noteworthy given that New Hampshire was previously expected to lean toward Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running alongside Tim Walz. While RealClearPolitics’ polling average still shows Harris leading in the state by 4.5 percentage points, that margin has clearly narrowed in recent weeks, indicating potential vulnerability for the Democratic ticket.
A recent poll from the New Hampshire Journal and Praecones Analytica, released Sunday evening, reveals a close race in the state, with Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 50.2% to 49.8%. The last time New Hampshire voted for a Republican in a presidential election was in 2000 when George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore. Since then, the state has consistently supported the Democratic presidential candidate in every election.
“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” said Karoline Leavitt, a Trump national campaign spokesperson and New Hampshire native. “To my fellow Granite Staters who want to keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free — get out and vote for President Trump. Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would destroy New Hampshire and America forever.”
New Hampshire isn’t the only blue-leaning state facing pressure. RealClearPolitics’ latest map indicates that a significant portion of electoral votes in traditionally Democratic states is now up for grabs. In addition to New Hampshire, states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are classified as toss-ups. This group of states, totaling 108 electoral votes, could swing either way and ultimately determine the outcome of the election. Minnesota, of course, is home to Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate.
The Democratic ticket has 211 electoral votes from states that are likely or leaning in Harris’s favor. The “Likely Harris” category includes Colorado (10), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), Oregon (8), and Maine’s 1st Congressional District (1), totaling 52 electoral votes. “Leans Harris” adds another 20 from Maine (2), New Mexico (5), and Virginia (13). However, even with these numbers, Harris is still far from the required 270 votes, meaning the toss-up states will be pivotal.
On the Republican side, Trump and Vance have 219 electoral votes, putting them in a strong position to reach the 270-vote threshold. “Leans Trump” states include Florida (30), Ohio (17), Texas (40), and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1), contributing a total of 88 electoral votes. Meanwhile, “Likely Trump” states such as Alaska (3), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), and South Carolina (9) add another 38. The GOP is aggressively pursuing additional support in toss-up states, betting on messages of economic recovery and strong leadership.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.