Democrat James Talarico holds a six-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a new Marist poll released Tuesday. The survey found Talarico pulling 50 percent support to Paxton’s 44 percent among registered voters statewide.
Independents are a key driver of Talarico’s advantage. That group favors the Democrat by 20 points, 55 percent to 35 percent, a margin that could prove decisive in a competitive general election.
In other words, Texas is doomed if voters don’t show up for Paxton and defeat Talarico.
Sharp Generational Divide Between Talarico and Paxton
The poll reveals a stark generational split. Gen Z voters back Talarico by a 56-point margin, 74 percent to 18 percent, while millennials prefer him 52 percent to 36 percent. The race tightens considerably among Gen X, where Talarico holds just a one-point edge, 49 percent to 48 percent.
Older voters break the other way. Baby Boomers and the Silent and Greatest generations combined favor Paxton by 23 points. White evangelical Christians also side heavily with the Republican attorney general, backing him 75 percent to 22 percent despite Talarico’s public identification as a Christian.
The Marist survey was conducted September 17 through 20 among 1,139 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Texas Senate race polling data puts Talarico’s average lead at 2.8 points in the RealClearPolling average as of Wednesday.
Talarico’s Pastor Draws Scrutiny Over Resurrection Remarks
Talarico has faced sustained criticism over the religious views of his pastor and mentor, the Rev. Jim Rigby of St. Andrews Presbyterian Church in Austin. In a recently surfaced Easter sermon, Rigby cast doubt on the resurrection of Jesus, asking his congregation whether they want to base their lives on uncertain accounts passed down through generations.
“Light is not stronger than darkness. Darkness is essential to understanding your life. Maybe Jesus rose from the dead, but maybe not,” Rigby said in the sermon.
Rigby has also described himself as being on the “same team” as atheists. The scrutiny of Talarico’s religious associations has become a recurring line of attack as the November election approaches.
What Comes Next in the Texas Senate Contest
RNC Chairman Michael Whatley has pushed back on the poll’s implications, arguing that Republicans will unite behind Paxton and that Texas will ultimately reject Talarico. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
With the margin sitting within or near the poll’s error range, both campaigns will be watching independent voter turnout closely. The next round of polling will show whether Talarico can sustain his current advantage or whether Paxton closes the gap as the race enters its final stretch.
