The Supreme Court did not completely gut Section II of the Voting Rights Act, which was used for decades by Democrats to demand new congressional districts based solely on race. Nevertheless, the section was greatly narrowed in the long-awaited Louisiana vs. Callais ruling which was 6-3, and as such, that sent the Democrat left into panic mode. The dissenting opinion makes it clear using Section II as a means of drawing race-oriented congressional districts has been eliminated, opening the door for the entire South to redraw districts, making it possible for GOP dominance in the region for generations to come.
Democrats face significant challenges in a redistricting battle because their strongholds are already heavily gerrymandered. Gaining even one additional seat will require considerable effort in many Democratic-leaning states. In swing states like Pennsylvania, there are multiple obstacles, including the fact that one chamber of the state legislature is controlled by Republicans. Axios published a detailed article on the Democrats’ comprehensive response plan to the Voting Rights Act ruling, which suggested that this task might be more complicated than it was worth. However, some Democrats who previously opposed redistricting are now reconsidering their stance following the Callais opinion:
That new energy could put a fresh crop of blue and even purple states on the board as potential redistricting targets ahead of 2028, according to more than 20 federal and state Democratic lawmakers Axios spoke to.
Even some legislators who previously resisted redistricting in their states appear to be warming up to the idea after Wednesday’s decision.
Illinois state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who won the Democratic nomination for Illinois’ 7th House District, was one of several Black Caucus members who pushed back against Gov. JB Pritzker’s attempt to redistrict last fall. He told Axios in a phone interview Thursday, “All things should be considered at this point.”
The details: “Anyone seeking a map, seeking a gerrymander, would have a real problem in our state Constitution,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) told Axios, citing restrictions on splitting up counties, municipalities and even boroughs.
The state Supreme Court threw out a GOP-drawn map in 2018 under those auspices, and most of those judges are still on the court, Boyle said, “so I’m very skeptical … a Democratic trifecta could push through a gerrymander.”
“We will have a national referendum on the chaos, cruelty and corruption of Donald Trump and his enablers this November,” Manuel Bonder, a spokesperson for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), told Axios when asked about the possibility of mid-decade redistricting.
“The Governor is focused on winning up and down the ballot and electing leaders who will take action to protect our democracy and pass a new Voting Rights Act and national anti-gerrymandering legislation.”
“Who the hell knows?” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) when asked whether Michigan Democrats may make an attempt at mid-decade redistricting.
She noted her state has an independent redistricting commission that is “unlikely” to get scrapped.
The intrigue: Amid all of this, House Democrats told Axios they will simultaneously push legislation to eliminate gerrymandering nationwide.
The situation presents a mixed bag: while states like Colorado and New York provide a promising environment for this kind of activity, many others encounter legislative and constitutional obstacles that dampen enthusiasm. A nationwide ban on gerrymandering seems unlikely, so it’s best to just chuckle at that idea. Before long, this issue may fade, as blue states are expected to lose power in the 2030 census, which explains the rising anxiety. Democrats are likely facing a significant blow in the Electoral College, where a future Republican candidate might not even need to secure the blue wall states to reach the magic number of 270.
Their reliance on unchecked illegal immigration has been the Democrats’ political lifeline for the past generation, keeping them relevant in an increasingly challenging landscape. And President Trump is fixing that issue with his mass deportations.
