There’s some positive news emerging from Virginia this Wednesday morning that may indicate how the April 21 gerrymandering referendum championed by Democrats will perform. Republican Andrew Rice has triumphed in a special election for Virginia’s 98th House District and will replace the late GOP Delegate Barry Knight, who passed away last month after more than ten years of service in the Virginia Beach area.
Rice, who serves as a deputy commonwealth’s attorney, defeated his Democratic opponent, Cheryl Smith, by a significant 25-point margin; the latest figures show Rice scoring 62.46 percent of the vote, while Smith received just 37.5 percent.
Prior to Tuesday’s election, the district was largely regarded as a secure seat for Republicans, so Rice’s victory comes as no real surprise; however, the extent of his win is particularly revealing. When Smith faced Rice’s predecessor, Del. Knight, last November, she obtained 43.2 percent of the votes — a notable decline for the Democrat, whose party typically has strong turnout in special elections (in contrast to the GOP, which often has lower turnout in these instances).
? HOLY CRAP! Republicans just scored a +14 point OVER PERFORMANCE in the Virginia House of Delegates District 98 Special Election
Andrew Rice (R) defeats Cheryl Smith (D) by 28+ points, in the Trump+14 district
Apply liberals' logic, this means a RED TSUNAMI is coming ?? pic.twitter.com/OZImi7xLNe
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 18, 2026
As mentioned in the tweet above, this district favored Trump by +14 in 2024; as of yesterday, it leaned +25 towards the GOP (based on the figures from Wednesday morning). So, what’s happening here? Did Republicans unexpectedly perform well in a special election, or is there more to interpret from these figures?
When you factor in that early voting has already started for the April 21 gerrymander referendum, it appears that Virginians are quite unhappy with the extreme left policies – including burdensome new taxes and perilous gun regulations – that state Democrats, led by Gov. Abigail Spanberger, are pushing on them. Should Democrats win the referendum, they will implement a new congressional map that shifts the current 6D-5R configuration to a problematic 10D-R1 gerrymandered disaster.
The election results from Tuesday indicate a shift in momentum, moving away from the support that brought Spanberger to office in November and now favoring Republicans. In essence, Republicans in Virginia performed so impressively on Tuesday that the gerrymander initiative suddenly appears much more precarious for Democrats.
Today, Rs outran Trump by ~10% in the VA HD98 special – an anomalous result when the average special sees Dems outrun Kamala by ~12%.
This result aligns with early data for VA’s April 21 redistricting referendum, which shows MUCH higher turnout in GOP areas than Dem ones atm. pic.twitter.com/aPbt8LuzVJ
— Ethan C7 (@ECaliberSeven) March 18, 2026
Early voting for the gerrymandering referendum began on March 6, and the turnout numbers so far indicate that participation is highest in areas that would be negatively affected by the unusual new congressional map proposed by Democrats. This, combined with the results of the special election, might reveal that Virginia – contrary to what it seems – could still be very much engaged.
The shift towards Republicans implies that voters in Virginia might be quickly losing patience with Democrat overreach. And that is certainly a positive development.
