Republicans secretly – and not so secretly – hoped Jasmine Crockett would win the Democratic primary for the US Senate in Texas. Not only would the left-wing lunacy she embraces have teed up an easy GOP hold in November regardless of their own nominee, but the RNC would also have turned Crockett and her outrageous rhetoric into this cycle’s poster child for lunatic Leftism in the Democrat Party.
James Talarico presents a more significant challenge, though he, too, has leftist baggage (his belief that there are a half-dozen sexes, not just two). It becomes crucial to note that Republican incumbent John Cornyn and current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will spend tens of millions of dollars attacking each other. The GOP could use that money more effectively in other competitive midterm races. Talarico’s connection to Beto O’Rourke could give him an opportunity to gain an advantage over a divided Republican Party.
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This afternoon, President Donald Trump stated that enough is enough, even before the runoff battle has begun. He announced that he would endorse one candidate in this race and expects the other candidate to pack up and go home immediately:
The Republican Primary Race for the United States Senate in the Great State of Texas, a State I LOVE and won 3 times in Record Numbers (the HIGHEST vote ever recorded, by far!!!), cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer. IT MUST STOP NOW! We have an easy to beat, Radical Left Opponent, and we have to TOTALLY FOCUS on putting him away, quickly and decisively! Both John and Ken ran great races, but not good enough. Now, this one, must be PERFECT! My Endorsements within the Republican Party have been virtually insurmountable! It is such an honor to realize and say that almost everyone I Endorse WINS, and wins by a lot, especially in Texas! I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair? We must win in November!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
The demand is certainly intriguing, to say the least. Trump appears to be leveraging his MAGA support in Texas to pressure an end to this runoff. Which candidate is most dependent on Trump’s base and would therefore find it difficult to go against his wishes?
We might not need to speculate for long. According to The Atlantic’s Michael Scherer and Ashley Parker, they believe they already have the answer. And indeed, this situation revolves around both money and MAGA influence:
President Trump’s political advisers expect him to endorse Senator John Cornyn in Texas’s May 26 Republican-primary runoff election following the incumbent’s better-than-expected finish against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the first round of voting yesterday, three people briefed on the deliberations told us.
Trump declined to get involved in the race before the first round of voting, and Republican Senate strategists had been worried that he wouldn’t endorse Cornyn, who has been critical of the president in the past. Strategists have also warned that Paxton, a scandal-scarred favorite of Trump’s MAGA base, would need more money from top GOP donors than Cornyn would require to defeat the Democratic nominee, James Talarico. Estimates of the added cost of Paxton being the nominee in the general election range from about $80 million to more than $200 million, according to several top strategists, given the Democrats’ ability to raise massive sums of money in the state from individual donors if the race is perceived as winnable.
This strategy makes a lot of sense when it comes to defending the Texas Senate seat. Running an incumbent is typically easier than putting forward a new challenger in an open-seat race. While Cornyn may have angered some by pushing Joe Biden’s gun control legislation through the Senate – and “may” is indeed a generous assessment – he’s a familiar figure with a solid track record of backing Trump. In contrast, Paxton aligns closely with the MAGA movement and enjoys passionate support; however, his scandals and other controversies could make him quite vulnerable in a general election. For Trump, supporting Paxton carries significant risks with minimal rewards compared to Cornyn, who is likely to perform better against Talarico. Furthermore, backing Cornyn could help prevent Democrats from using Paxton’s baggage against him throughout the midterms.
The GOP has been wargaming this for a while, Scherer and Parker report:
Republicans have been working for months to rebuild the relationship between Cornyn and Trump, culminating in an invitation last week for the senator to ride on Air Force One with the president from Washington to a rally in Texas. The trip happened as Trump gave the green light for the U.S. attack on Iran. “It takes a lot of political courage, because, you know, these things are easier to start than to end,” Cornyn told CBS News Saturday about his conversations with the president about the strikes. “I told him I really respected the fact he would take the chance—the political risk, really—to strike Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.”
It also doesn’t hurt that Cornyn narrowly edged Paxton last night. The conventional wisdom was that Wesley Hunt would play the spoiler and drag Cornyn into second place. Instead, Cornyn went scorched-earth on both Paxton and Hunt and wound up winning the primary, but falling well short of the majority needed to avoid the runoff. Paxton’s vulnerability showed up even among Republican voters under that withering attack, and Democrats will amplify those attacks as soon as the runoff ends if Paxton wins it.
Trump might still surprise everyone by endorsing Paxton. However, Cornyn will not feel pressured to withdraw since the MAGA base wasn’t what gave him the plurality last night. Cornyn had already navigated some challenges due to Trump’s lack of endorsement. If Trump intends to clear the field with an endorsement, it would be more effective by asking Paxton to withdraw and perhaps softening the impact by offering him a role in the administration instead.
Would Paxton be willing to back down? Probably not, but in the last few weeks of the campaign, he struggled to get his message across, while Cornyn has a massive war chest at his disposal. If Trump urges Paxton to withdraw and he refuses, Paxton is likely to face a steep uphill battle in raising enough funds to compete effectively against Cornyn one-on-one.
Of course, some may view the credibility of The Atlantic as a reason to take this report with a grain of salt. Considering the significant advantages that incumbency offers and the high costs associated with remaining loyal to Paxton, the findings in this Atlantic report seem reasonable, at least at first glance. Furthermore, Trump has already stated his intention to settle this matter promptly to avoid wasting more time and money.
