One significant topic likely to be featured in President Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night is affordability. He received some positive news in this area on Monday, and I’ll wager you five (imaginary) bucks that he will mention it.
We’re referring to mortgage rates, which have dropped to their lowest levels in four years:
One year ago, President Trump promised to make Housing Affordable.
One year later, interest rates drop below 6% for the first time in four years. https://t.co/SdijSIdM7q
— Scott Turner (@SecretaryTurner) February 23, 2026
After reaching a recent peak of 7.79% under Biden’s disastrous reign, in October 2023, mortgage rates are now below six percent, according to Mortgage News Daily:
The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond buying plans were announced.
Much like the last time, there’s always a risk that something happens to prompt a bond market reversal today. If that happens, mortgage lenders could raise rates in the middle of the day.
But unlike last time, mortgage rates have eased down to current levels in a much more gradual and–dare we say–sustainable way. After all, today’s improvement is only a moderate 0.05% vs Friday. Back on January 9th, the initial day-over-day jump was more than 0.20%.
The Trump administration had already managed to see some downward movement in rates before today. And, economists say, there’s a great chance rates will remain below six percent – and may even drop further:
While rates briefly dipped into the 5% range for a few hours in January, they bounced back that same day. That is unlikely this time around, according to Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
“This visit to the high 5?s looks more sustainable on paper,” Graham said. “As long as the broader bond market doesn’t sell-off in any major way, mortgage rates stand a better chance of remaining closer to present levels than they did last time. And if the broader bond market improves further (i.e. 10yr yields dipping under 4.0%), mortgage rates would likely make incremental gains.”
There’s some ways to go, of course, but things still look better than those awful Biden years:
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US…
1970s: 8.9%
1980s: 12.7%
1990s: 8.1%
2000s: 6.3%
2010s: 4.1%
2020s: 5.3%
—
All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65%
2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79%
Today's Rate: 6.01% (lowest since Sep 2022) pic.twitter.com/rK4ykRx9RW— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 22, 2026
We could begin to see a rash of home refinancing, too:
The drop in rates will likely incite more refinancing, which has been surging over the last several weeks. Applications to refinance a home loan are about 130% higher than they were a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Affordability is a major concern for American voters. While it won’t be resolved overnight due to the effects of inflation, there are some encouraging signs emerging. Expect Trump to highlight this during his address tonight.
Speaking of the State of the Union, RedState will be live-blogging the entire event, so mark your calendars and be sure to join us. The coverage will begin shortly before 9:00 p.m. ET.
