Last week’s Supreme Court ruling upholding Texas’ redistricting map has already produced its first political dividend.
Just a few weeks ago, Rep. Jasmine Crockett told a radio host that if the legislature’s map went into effect, she’d be effectively drawn out of her House seat. And if that happened, she warned, she’d retaliate by running for the U.S. Senate in 2026 against John Cornyn. As she put it to host Lurie Daniel Favors: “If you want to take my seat of 766,000 away, I feel like there has to be some karma in that — to where I take your seat that is for 30 million away.”
Well, the map is now law. And Crockett may actually have to follow through on her threat — a scenario that would create pure chaos for Texas Democrats and hand Republicans yet another unexpected advantage.
And Crockett’s threat wasn’t just bluster. A University of Houston poll from that period showed her leading a hypothetical Democratic Senate primary — six points ahead of Robert Francis O’Rourke and state Rep. James Talarico. Collin Allred, fresh off his failed challenge to Ted Cruz, was stuck at a distant 13%.
For a moment, all of this was put on ice when a federal judge set aside the new map. But once the Supreme Court stepped in last Thursday and reinstated it, the pause button snapped off. Texas will be using the new maps next year — and now the dominoes are tumbling exactly as expected.
Allred told the Dallas Morning News he is withdrawing from the Senate primary… and what he’s choosing to do instead is music to my ears:
Former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is ending his Senate campaign and will instead run for Congress in Dallas County’s revamped District 33.
Allred’s decision comes as U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas, is expected to join the Democratic Senate contest that also includes state Rep. James Talarico of Austin.
“I felt that having a long, drawn out, brutal primary and runoff was not in the people’s interest or the interest of the folks who placed their trust in me,” Allred told The Dallas Morning News in an exclusive interview. “I’ve made the decision to end my Senate campaign, but I’ve decided to run for the newly drawn 33rd Congressional District.”
We’ll get back to what this means for the new TX-33 in a moment. But why did Allred pull the plug on his Senate bid now?
Simple: Crockett is expected to make good on her threat — and she’s set to announce it later this afternoon:
Allred’s decision comes on a day Crockett has set a 4:30 p.m. announcement where she expected to announce her campaign for the Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn. Allred had been campaigning for that seat since July 1. Talarico joined the contest in September.
Allred is clearly trying to clear the runway for Crockett. Their constituencies overlap heavily — geographically, demographically, and ideologically. Both are creatures of the Democrats’ hard-Left faction, and they court the same voters. In fairness, so do Talarico and O’Rourke, but Beto is a spent force in Texas politics and still hasn’t committed to another run. Allred dropping out makes his reentry even less likely.
That leaves Talarico — the left-wing seminarian who’s had a couple of decent polling moments but now has to explain why he follows porn stars and OnlyFans models on Instagram. Axios reported that little gem exactly a month ago:
James Talarico, a Texas Democrat running for U.S. Senate who has put his faith at the forefront of his campaign, follows several adult film performers, escorts and OnlyFans models on Instagram, according to an Axios review. …
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Earlier this year, he “liked” separate photos of an Austin-based Instagram account holder who also has an OnlyFans account and a page on EscortBook.com — a site that claims to be the “#1 content management system in the escort industry!”
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Those photos did not include nudes, which are largely banned on Instagram.
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Talarico also follows Instagram accounts of adult film actors such as @honky_tonkangel, who has nearly 250,000 followers and goes by the name Giselle Palmer.
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Some accounts with matching usernames of the Instagram accounts he follows appear on sites such as datingpornstar.com and escortstate.com, while several have adult content on OnlyFans. All of those accounts include provocative pictures and some link to their other sites with explicit content, but don’t identify their holders as adult film performers.
I have a feeling that “according to an Axios review” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. This has all the hallmarks of routine oppo work from a rival campaign gearing up for a bruising primary. At the time, Allred was the only major Democrat who’d publicly signaled interest in the Senate nomination (aside from Talarico). But it’s worth noting: Crockett’s semi-announcement came two weeks before the Axios piece dropped.
Translation: Allred wasn’t the only one trying to clear the field. And he certainly wasn’t the only one willing to throw elbows.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Allred isn’t usually one to shy away from a primary fight — which brings us right back to the shiny new TX-33. Under the redrawn map, Allred can’t simply waltz back into Congress. He has to knock off a Democratic incumbent to reclaim a seat…
And he chose the person who replaced him:
Allred’s move creates a primary clash with the woman who replaced him in Congress–U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson, D-Farmers Branch. Johnson is in her first term representing District 32, which the Republican-controlled Legislature redrew this summer to be more favorable to a GOP candidate. …
District 33, which is represented by Fort Worth Democrat Marc Veasey, sheds all of Tarrant County under the redistricting and now includes neighborhoods Allred once represented. Veasey is expected to run for District 30, which Crockett represents.
This is shaping up to look a lot like the Democratic bloodbath in New York, where redrawn maps forced Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney — two longtime party heavyweights — to go for each other’s throats in a brutal primary.
Allred and Johnson may not have that level of seniority, but the dynamic is similar: too many Democrats, too few safe seats, and a map that suddenly forces members to cannibalize one another’s districts. With five fewer Democratic seats in Texas and ambitious outsiders trying to elbow their way in, this is going to get ugly fast.
Democrats aren’t just playing musical chairs — they’re playing it on a shrinking dance floor.
