The tropics have been unusually quiet to start September, but AccuWeather forecasters warn activity could ramp up by mid-month.
Experts say the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are especially primed for storms that could intensify quickly and threaten coastal communities.
“Atmospheric conditions will be primed for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop by mid-September,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said on Thursday.
He mentioned that there will be reduced dry air, less Saharan dust, and decreased wind shear across much of the main development region in the Atlantic and Gulf.
The Gulf of Mexico has seen little activity this hurricane season, with only short-lived Tropical Storm Barry passing through in June. The lull has left waters unusually warm, creating conditions ripe for rapidly developing storms.
“If anything goes in there, it almost certainly will become a major hurricane,” DaSilva said.’
“The ocean heat content, or the depth of warm ocean water in the gulf and western Caribbean, is just below record high levels,” DaSilva added. “This is extremely concerning.”
Warm water serves as fuel for hurricanes, and currently, the Gulf resembles a giant bathtub, with water temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit.
“That’s warm water that can be rocket fuel for a developing hurricane,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
Forecasters warn conditions are now ripe for rapid intensification, when a storm’s sustained winds jump by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Such sudden strengthening can upend preparation plans and make urgent steps like evacuations far more difficult.
