A new round of U.S. war games warns that a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could cost America thousands of troops, hundreds of aircraft and submarines, and dozens of ships — including aircraft carriers — if the U.S. intervenes.
The simulations suggest Beijing could move within two years, with U.S. intelligence assessing a blockade as a likely first step to force Taipei’s submission. Taiwan has likened Xi Jinping to Hitler, claiming he thinks daily of “conquering” the island.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ran 26 war-game scenarios of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the Daily Mail reported.
“Even successful campaigns exact heavy casualties,” the report concluded. “Such a conflict would be a shock to the United States, which, since the end of the Cold War, has been accustomed to fighting low-casualty wars with few losses of major weapons.
“Any blockade creates escalatory pressures that are difficult to contain. Almost all scenarios entail casualties. Even at lower levels of escalation, casualties were in the thousands,” the report said. “At higher escalation levels, the United States lost hundreds of aircraft and dozens of warships.”
In the worst case, breaking the blockade cost the U.S. 21,000 casualties, 45 ships, an aircraft carrier, two submarines, and more than 1,000 aircraft. China suffered 13,000 casualties, along with the loss of 42 submarines, nearly 100 ships, and about 1,000 aircraft. But the report also said China’s losses were high and in some cases, worse than those of the U.S.
China is now producing warships at triple the pace of the United States. A blockade, analysts warn, would spark a frantic evacuation of nearly one million foreign nationals from Taiwan and force President Donald Trump to decide whether to break it with military convoys or risk leaving Taiwan isolated.
Officials have also raised the possibility of a prolonged airlift — echoing the Berlin airlift after World War II — as another high-risk option, the Daily Mail noted. “Total victory is unachievable when both sides have a secure homeland and nuclear weapons,” the report concluded.
