When Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas’s new maps into law, Republicans stood to gain five House seats while Democrats gained none — and the picture could worsen for them.
Democrats are pinning hopes on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push for California voters to scrap the state’s independent redistricting commission in favor of a more partisan map to offset GOP gains. But that effort faces an unusual coalition of opponents, including President Trump, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and Charles Munger Jr., who helped create the commission and has already spent $10 million to block Newsom’s measure.
Analysts predict the fight could spark more than $200 million in spending and years of litigation if the measure passes. Meanwhile, Republicans face fewer obstacles in red states like Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio, where mid-decade map changes modeled on Trump’s approach could bolster the party’s chances of holding its slim House majority in 2026, the Washington Times reported on Monday.
“Republicans have farther to run,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. “There are more Republican states to slice and dice.” That’s because Democrats began gerrymandering the states they run years ago to lock out Republican congressional seats, political analysts have said.
Momentum for redrawing Indiana’s congressional maps is building. Dozens of Republican lawmakers recently traveled to Washington to meet with Vice President J.D. Vance and White House officials, with redistricting among the topics discussed.
President Trump also met separately with Indiana Senate President Rodric Bray and House Speaker Todd Huston. After the meeting, state Rep. Jim Lucas told the IndyStar, “I’m not as opposed to it as I was.”
Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita, who would be responsible for defending new maps in court, voiced support ahead of the meetings, arguing “illegal immigrants” distorted the 2020 census and gave California an unfair advantage.
“I’m done bringing a knife to a gunfight against aggressive, nonstop left-wing tactics,” Mr. Rokita said. “It’s time to fight on an even playing field and secure fair representation for our state.” The Times said Gov. Mike Braun remains uncommitted to calling a special session to change congressional maps saying it’ll be up to the Legislature to decide.
Vance argued Republicans are only following Democrats’ example in states like Massachusetts, where Trump won 36% of the vote in 2024 but the congressional delegation remains entirely Democratic.
“All we’re doing, frankly, is trying to make the situation a little bit more fair on a national scale,” Mr. Vance said recently on NBC News. “The Democrats have gerrymandered their states really aggressively.” He added: “We think there are opportunities to push back against that. And that’s really all we’re doing.”
