Republican chances of retaining their narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives have jumped 16 percent on a leading political betting site, following news that another GOP-controlled state is preparing to redraw its congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Punchbowl News reports that Missouri is weighing a redistricting effort, calling it “perhaps the easiest” state for Republicans to flip an additional seat. “Republicans in Jefferson City are already discussing a new map that would give them seven of the state’s eight districts — and the White House is on board, according to sources familiar with the process,” the outlet reported. “In 2022, Missouri lawmakers drew a map that elected six Republicans and two Democrats over the vehement objections of some in the GOP.”
If Missouri moves forward with redistricting, the congressional seat most likely to be affected is that of U.S. Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver in the Fifth District, which includes much of Kansas City. Because the district is not protected under the Voting Rights Act, Republicans could potentially dismantle it by redrawing the map in a way that splits the urban Democratic stronghold into surrounding Republican-leaning areas. This could make it more difficult for Democrats to retain the seat if a new map is adopted.
The latest developments come as the Texas legislature begins a 30-day special session that will include debate over redistricting. Governor Greg Abbott called the session after the Justice Department raised “constitutional concerns” about the state’s current maps—specifically, allegations that four districts in the Houston and Dallas metro areas, key Democratic strongholds, were racially gerrymandered when redrawn in 2021.
Under the preliminary plan proposed by Texas Republicans, the GOP could gain up to seven additional congressional seats.
Meanwhile, Ohio—another Republican-led state—is also preparing to redraw its congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Under state law, the current 15-district map must be revisited because it was approved without bipartisan support.
The current congressional map in Ohio yields 10 Republican and five Democratic seats. Republicans attempted to redraw the map in 2022 to further cement their advantage, but that effort was blocked by the GOP-controlled state Supreme Court at the time. Since then, Republicans have strengthened their majority on the court, potentially paving the way for a more favorable outcome in the next redistricting push.
Democrats in left-leaning states have pledged to fight back, but their options are limited. Earlier this year, the liberal-leaning Wisconsin Supreme Court dismissed a redistricting lawsuit that would have likely benefited Democrats. While Wisconsin is expected to redraw its maps at some point, the process won’t happen in time to affect the 2026 midterm elections.
