CNN data analyst Harry Enten issued a warning about Democrats’ prospects in the 2026 midterm elections, saying the party is “way behind” compared to where it stood at the same point in the 2006 and 2018 cycles.
Enten noted that Democrats currently hold just a 2-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot—far short of the 7-point advantage they had ahead of their wave victories in both 2006 and 2018.
“The bottom line is that Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 cases when it comes to the generic congressional ballot,” Enten said Wednesday on CNN. He also noted that Republicans have more opportunities to gain seats in the midterm elections than Democrats do.
“So it’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005,” Enten said. “It’s actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pickup opportunities.”
“So, of course, Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024 will it happen this time around? We’ll just have to wait and see. But for anyone who’s writing Republican House’s political obituary, hold the phone. This is a reality check. Republicans are still very much in the game,” Enten said.
Enten’s warning follows a cautionary note from Trump’s 2024 pollster, Tony Fabrizio, about the GOP’s 2026 outlook. Fabrizio’s firm found Republicans trailing 41% to 44% on a generic ballot in districts that were evenly split in 2024, a three-point Democratic advantage.
PLAY:
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
To break the GOP’s hold on Washington, Democrats must net three House seats. That task is made even tougher by midterm Senate races concentrated in Republican-leaning states, limiting their path to reclaiming the upper chamber.
From the GOP’s standpoint, the law delivers sweeping tax cuts, historic funding boosts for immigration enforcement, and tighter restrictions on social safety nets. Democrats, by contrast, argue it erodes health insurance access, hikes costs for the middle class, skews tax relief toward the wealthy, undermines green energy efforts, and limits workers’ organizing rights.
But Democrat claims don’t stand up to scrutiny. The vast majority of lost “health insurance access” affects illegal migrants, not American citizens. There is no evidence that costs have been “hiked” for middle class earners, and more than 88 percent of Americans of all income levels were affected by the bill making 2017 tax cuts permanent. In addition, the new law exempts taxes on tips, overtime, and other forms of income.
