Republicans’ prospects for holding off a Democratic surge in the 2026 midterms appear to be improving, according to a new poll. However, other recent surveys suggest potential challenges ahead for the GOP, while spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee unsurprisingly told Newsweek they expect a “favorable political environment” heading into 2026.
Democrats are aiming to replicate the 2018 “blue wave” in the upcoming midterms, with all House seats and one-third of the Senate up for grabs. While the party controlling the White House typically loses ground in midterm elections, Democrats have seen strong performances in special elections nationwide—a trend they hope signals momentum heading into next year, the outlet reported.
Although Democrats are performing well in some generic ballot polls, surveys also indicate that the party remains unpopular with many voters. Party leaders are still working to regain support from key demographic groups that shifted toward Republicans in 2024, including young voters as well as Latino and Asian American communities. At the same time, many Democrats feel their party has not pushed back hard enough against the Trump administration and are calling for fresh leadership ahead of the midterms.
A new poll from the Napolitan News Service and RMG Research shows Republicans with their largest lead of 2025 on the generic congressional ballot, holding an 8-point advantage over Democrats. According to the survey, 52% of respondents said they plan to vote Republican, while 44% indicated support for Democrats. This marks a significant shift from May, when Democrats held a narrow lead—48% to 45%. In April, the poll showed Democrats ahead by five points, 50% to 45%.
DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told Newsweek in a statement: “The midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on who is going to lower costs and help improve the lives of everyday Americans, not the wealthy and well-connected.
“By all accounts, House Republicans are failing miserably,” he further claimed. “Most Americans hate Republicans’ Big, Ugly Bill, and it’s why House Democrats will retake the majority. House Democrats have the better message, stronger candidates, more resources, and a favorable political environment as we go into 2026.”
A recent YouGov–The Economist poll showed Democrats holding a 3-point lead, with 39% support compared to 36% for Republicans. The survey, conducted from May 30 to June 2 among 1,610 adults, had a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, Real Clear Polling reported an average Democratic lead of approximately 2.4 points over Republicans.
In the 2022 midterms, Republicans won the national popular vote by 2.7 points—a result viewed as underwhelming given President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings at the time. The GOP gained just nine House seats. By contrast, Democrats won the 2018 midterms by 8.6 points and flipped 41 seats.
