A state that has voted overwhelmingly for Democrats for decades is now on the verge of flipping red or, at a minimum, fading from deep blue to deep purple.
The New Jersey Republican Party shared polling results Monday that are likely to unsettle Democrats concerned about their hold on power in the state. According to the poll, just 33 percent of New Jersey residents believe the state is on the “right track” under Democratic leadership.
Meanwhile, 54 percent say the state is headed in the “wrong direction.” The GOP’s statement suggested that these numbers reflect growing public dissatisfaction and pointed to recent gubernatorial polling as a sign that New Jersey could be poised for a political shift in upcoming elections.
The 2025 New Jersey governor’s race is shaping up to be highly competitive. Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill holds 45 percent support, with Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli close behind at 42 percent. Just 12 percent of voters remain undecided.
A report from WHYY highlighted significant warning signs for Democrats in New Jersey following the recent primary elections. While Trump lost the state to former Vice President Kamala Harris, the margin was just 6 points—a notable shift from 2020, when Joe Biden carried New Jersey by 16 points. “New Jersey’s ready to pop out of that blue horror show,” Trump went on to say in the tele-rally held for Ciattarelli a week ago.
Trump also made significant gains in New Jersey’s heavily Latino Passaic County. He won the city of Passaic outright in the 2024 presidential election and boosted his support in Paterson, a city with a predominantly Latino and Muslim population.
Statewide, 43 percent of Latino voters backed President Trump, up from 28 percent in 2020. The report noted that Democrats will need to regain support among Latino voters to prevent Republicans from potentially securing majorities in both the state House and Senate in the upcoming midterms.
Strategists, unions, organizers, and candidates shifted their focus away from illegal immigration and instead concentrated on economic issues, a top priority for American voters. “At the end of the day, if you’re worried about paying your bills and being safe at night, everything else is secondary,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a Democratic candidate, said in a conversation with the AP. “I think that is front and center in the Latino community.”
