As Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem continues her visits to Capitol Hill this month, she’s been citing some eye-opening figures—none more striking than her claim that an estimated 20 million illegal immigrants are currently living in the United States.
“We don’t know for certain, but we believe it could be upwards of 20 million people that could be in this country illegally,” Noem told senators in one hearing. At a Cabinet meeting, meanwhile, she told the president there were “20 to 21 million people that need to go home.”
That figure is higher than most analysts predict; however, some experts point out that, given the Biden border surge, it’s not as outrageous an idea as it would have seemed just a few years ago. “Biden blew the top off everything,” Stephen A. Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, told The Washington Times. “The idea of 20 million now is not crazy anymore.”
His current estimate stands at nearly 16 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., though some experts caution that the true number is difficult to pin down, particularly following the policy shifts and reporting gaps during the Biden administration.
For much of the 21st century, including the later years of the Bush and Obama presidencies, into the first Trump term and even the early Biden era, official estimates generally ranged between 10 million and 12 million. A few higher estimates exist, but they typically rely on unconventional or debated statistical methods.
Biden’s tenure has clearly altered that trajectory, though the extent of the impact remains a hotly contested issue, especially across online platforms and social media. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller has claimed the Biden administration allowed in 15 million illegal immigrants, while Vice President J.D. Vance has put the number closer to “approximately 20 million.”
Both estimates far exceed official figures. From January 2021 through December 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection recorded 10.9 million encounters with unauthorized migrants. That figure doesn’t include the so-called “gotaways”—individuals who evaded capture. Some were tracked by surveillance (known gotaways), while others slipped through entirely undetected, The Times reported.
Taken together, these gaps suggest the true number of illegal entries during that period is likely several million higher.
