A U.S. House Democrat who has managed to hold onto his swing district for several election cycles is now facing his most serious challenge yet, with signs pointing toward a possible defeat in 2026.
All eyes in Washington will be on the battle for control of the House in 2027. While Republicans are widely expected to retain control of the U.S. Senate thanks to a highly favorable electoral map, the House presents a tougher fight.
House Republicans must navigate a series of competitive districts where moderate Democrats in blue states remain vulnerable. However, there’s promising news for the GOP: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) appears to have secured a strong candidate to take on Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), leader of the Blue Dog Democrats, who is now trailing in the latest polls.
In a head-to-head matchup with former Republican Governor Paul LePage, Rep. Jared Golden trails 48% to 43%, according to a mid-April poll commissioned by the pro-Republican Congressional Leadership Fund. The survey, which polled 400 likely voters, has a margin of error of 4.9%, putting LePage just beyond the margin and suggesting he would likely win if the election were held today.
Maine has long been just out of reach for Republicans running for federal office, making LePage’s strong showing a welcome development for a GOP caucus that must win several tight races to preserve its narrow House majority. The 2nd Congressional District has been held by Rep. Jared Golden since his first election in 2018.
Golden, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, managed to retain his seat in 2024 even as President Donald Trump carried the district. Known for occasionally breaking with his party, Golden has criticized President Joe Biden’s handling of illegal immigration and was the only House Democrat earlier this year to support the Republican-backed stopgap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown.
During the pandemic, Golden was one of only two Democrats to join Republicans in opposing an anti-police bill introduced in response to the death of George Floyd. He argued that repealing qualified immunity for law enforcement would make it nearly impossible for officers to do their jobs without constant fear of civil lawsuits.
LePage, a two-term governor and staunch MAGA conservative, announced in May that he was coming out of retirement to challenge Golden, prompting the Democrat to mock him over reports that he had been living full-time in Florida prior to entering the race.
“Yeah alright, what’s the poll question, ‘Who are you more likely to spot on a Florida beach in a Speedo, Paul LePage or Jared Golden?’” Golden told NOTUS in a statement. “What a joke.”
