A critical Supreme Court race in Wisconsin has become a tight contest, with a new poll indicating that GOP-backed Judge Brad Schimel is now in a statistical tie just hours before voters cast their ballots.
The most recent survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage shows Schimel trailing Judge Susan Crawford by a narrow margin of 51% to 49%. This difference is well within the poll’s margin of error of 2.9%. The poll sampled 1,083 likely voters, highlighting that voter turnout will be crucial in this race, which could significantly alter Wisconsin’s political and legal landscape.
“These off-cycle special election races always depend on turnout,” said Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage and Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group. “Among respondents who said they already have voted, Susan Crawford led by a 55%-45% margin. Among all voters who said they were ‘likely to vote,’ Brad Schimel led by 53%-47%. While the race is nonpartisan, Crawford has the backing of Democrats and Schimel is backed by Republicans, including President Trump and Elon Musk.”
Crawford has become the top choice for national Democrats, earning high-profile endorsements from former President Barack Obama and drawing major financial support from influential donors like Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and George Soros. On the Republican side, Schimel has consolidated conservative support. The former Wisconsin Attorney General and current Waukesha County judge has been endorsed by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, with The Financial Times reporting that Musk has contributed over $20 million to boost Schimel’s campaign.
Tuesday’s election could reshape the ideological makeup of Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, which is poised to decide critical cases—most notably a pivotal challenge to the state’s 1849 abortion ban. The court’s rulings could also influence future redistricting battles and the broader struggle over state versus federal authority. With spending nearing an unprecedented $100 million, the race has shattered records to become the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history, underscoring how these formerly low-profile contests have become flashpoints of national political interest and investment.
Schimel told WISN12 that the key to victory lies in voter participation: “It’s a turnout race,” he said. “It’s going back to Nov. 5 and getting conservative voters to understand why this is important. If we get 60% of the people who voted for President Trump to come out April 1 and vote for me, in all likelihood, that means I win.”
