A new poll released earlier this week found that nearly half of California voters would consider backing a Republican gubernatorial candidate when Governor Gavin Newsom’s term ends in 2026. The survey, conducted by national pollster David Wolfson—who also serves as a Faculty Lecturer at Columbia University’s Political Analytics Graduate Program and is sponsored by media firm Madison McQueen—sampled 700 likely voters between March 6 and 9. Participants were asked a series of questions regarding the economy, the country’s direction, and their political leanings as the 2026 midterm election cycle approaches.
Results were striking, as 48 percent of voters in the traditionally deep blue state indicated that they will consider voting for a Republican gubernatorial candidate. “Are voters ready for a change from the policy priorities of Democrats?” said Owen Brennan, president of Madison McQueen. “With the right leadership and policy focus, California Republicans are looking at the biggest window of opportunity in a generation.”
The poll revealed several concerning indicators for the Democratic Party. A striking 83 percent of voters agreed that gas prices in California are excessively high—a sentiment widely seen as a critique of the state’s energy policies. Additionally, 69 percent of respondents felt that Democratic leaders have not done enough to lower energy costs.
An additional 71 percent of likely voters feel that Governor Newsom and state legislative leaders have not done enough to curb the exorbitant cost of living. The survey also reflected growing opposition to left-wing social policies: 60 percent of respondents opposed taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegal aliens, 73 percent supported fully funding anti-crime Prop. 36—a measure that state Democratic leaders have declined to endorse—and only 24 percent believed that men should be allowed to compete in women’s or girls’ sports. “Voters are increasingly concerned about the direction of California under one-party rule,” Brennan said. “On issue after issue, voters are seeing their quality of life fall and their cost of living rise.”
Meanwhile, the Democratic field for the gubernatorial race is beginning to take shape, with former California Senate President Toni Atkins and former U.S. Representative Katie Porter already in the running. Additionally, former Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly considering a bid, and if she enters, she would likely emerge as the frontrunner.
