A Republican primary poll shows Vice President J.D. Vance surging, suggesting that a rapid takeover of the post-Trump MAGA movement is almost inevitable. Meanwhile, other potential contenders are languishing at historically low levels. Among them is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once predicted to give President Trump the primary fight of his life, but who instead squandered over $100 million on a failed White House bid that never advanced past Super Tuesday.
Among Republicans, 46% would back Vice President Vance if he runs to succeed his boss. The former Ohio senator has not shied away from the palace intrigue, and his homespun background as an Appalachian-turned-Midwestern underdog was effectively leveraged when he decisively outperformed six other candidates, including former state treasurer Josh Mandel, in 2022. “We’ll see,” Vance told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo last month when asked about the speculation.
“I’d say that we’ve not thought a lot about politics in the last six months,” he added, “but the way that I think about this is, the best thing for my future is actually the best thing for the American people, which is that we do a really good job over the next three and a half years.”
When it comes to competition, Vance faces little challenge. According to pollster Echelon Insights, DeSantis registers at a mere 7%, an all-time low that ties him for second place with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 4%. Since Echelon’s last poll on February 10th, DeSantis has fallen from 10%, and now he couldn’t even count on winning his home state. A poll by Fabrizio Lee & Associates showed Vance leading the governor among Florida’s Republican primary voters, 47% to 33%.
This week, Democrats buzzed at the prospect of Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg entering the presidential race after he opted not to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Gary Peters (D-MI). Sources told Politico that Buttigieg plans a serious second White House bid after his 2020 campaign fell short and led him to join President Biden’s cabinet.
A key factor in Buttigieg’s decision will undoubtedly be whether former Vice President Kamala Harris launches another run. Since leaving the White House in January, Harris has been focused on writing a new memoir detailing her rise to power and her California upbringing. She is also considering a run for governor in 2026, which could serve as a springboard for a presidential campaign. If she decides to run, she would start with a strong advantage—41% of likely Democratic primary voters favor her, far outpacing Buttigieg, as well as Governors Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Tim Walz, all of whom were polling in the single digits late last year.