President Donald Trump has had a very eventful — and many say successful — first week in office to begin his second and final term, and it’s ending on a high note. New Jersey, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, is experiencing an unexpected political shift. A recent poll shows President Donald Trump with a higher favorability rating than Democratic Governor Phil Murphy.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey for the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race reveals Trump holding a 48% favorable rating among state voters, with 46% viewing him unfavorably and 6% remaining neutral. In comparison, Governor Murphy has a 44% favorable rating, 42% unfavorable, 12% neutral, and 2% unfamiliar with him.
The state’s political landscape experienced a significant shift in the 2024 presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris carried New Jersey by just 5.9 percentage points over President Trump—a sharp decline from President Joe Biden’s 16-point victory in 2020. This marked the closest a Republican has come to flipping the state since 1992.
“Governor Murphy is eight points more popular among women than men, 48% to 40%. The Governor has a 75% favorable rating among Democratic voters, dropping to 27% of independents and 14% of Republicans,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. A majority of voters, 63%, say their family’s income is not keeping up with the rising cost of living. Meanwhile, 23% believe their income matches the cost of living, and 15% feel their income is increasing faster than expenses. “Women are about nine points more likely to report their income falling behind the cost of living than men, though majorities of both men (58%) and women (67%) hold the sentiment,” said Kimball.
Voters in New Jersey are evenly divided about the state’s direction, with 50% believing it is on the right track, and 50% feeling it is headed in the wrong direction. Kimball explained the divide along party lines: “Perception of the direction of the state varies by party: 70% of Democrats think the state is headed in the right direction, while 64% of Republicans and 68% of independents feel New Jersey is on the wrong track.”
For New Jersey voters, the economy remains the top concern, cited by 44%, followed by housing affordability at 21%. Other issues include immigration (8%), healthcare (7%), education (6%), and both crime and threats to democracy (5%), the survey found.