North Carolina’s 2026 Senate race may still be two years away, but early polling suggests political dynamics in the state are already shifting. Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of President-elect Donald Trump, is emerging as a formidable challenger to incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), with strong support from grassroots conservatives.
A Victory Insights poll conducted over Thanksgiving week shows Lara Trump leading with an impressive 65% support among Republican primary voters, compared to Tillis’s 11%. The results reflect a growing appetite within the GOP for candidates who align closely with Donald Trump’s policies and political vision. Tillis, a two-term senator known for his centrist approach and bipartisan cooperation, is increasingly viewed by many Republicans as insufficiently loyal to Trump’s agenda. The poll suggests this perception is fueling support for Lara Trump, a political newcomer who has leveraged her family connections and high-profile campaign roles to build substantial influence among the Republican base.
“Fresh off the heels of Donald Trump winning the state by more than 3%, some North Carolina Republicans are chomping at the bit to replace incumbent Republican US Senator Thom Tillis with someone who they believe will be more loyal to President Trump,” noted Ben Galbraith, Senior Pollster at Victory Insights. “Mark Robinson’s name has been discussed quite a bit, but although he could certainly mount a formidable Republican primary election challenge to Tillis, he has continually denied any speculation that he’s interested in running. Okay, so if not Mark Robinson, then whom?”
“If Republicans hope to win, they need a candidate who can fundraise on par with the Democrats, make it through the primary election unscathed, and win over nonpartisan and middle-of-the-road voters,” said Galbraith. “Our new poll finds that Lara Trump – President Trump’s daughter-in-law, campaign advisor, and co-chair of the RNC – could be just the right person for the job.”
The data also highlights potential challenges for the GOP. In hypothetical general election matchups, both Trump and Tillis narrowly trail Democratic candidate Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s outgoing governor. Trump lags by 1.2% and Tillis by 1.1%. Cooper’s enduring popularity, strengthened by his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and his bipartisan appeal, makes him a formidable contender in the race, the polling data show.
“The only metric in which Tillis outperforms Lara Trump is [favorability] among Democrats.” https://t.co/vJr3G8ewxT
— Ben Galbraith (@_BenGalbraith) December 2, 2024
Lara Trump shows potential strength among independent voters, a critical demographic in North Carolina. The poll reveals she slightly outperforms Thom Tillis, garnering 41.1% support compared to Tillis’s 40.6%. Analysts note that her ability to mobilize low-propensity Trump supporters—voters who often skip midterm elections—could prove decisive in a close race.
However, the possibility of a contentious Republican primary has raised concerns among party strategists. A bitter contest between Trump and Tillis could weaken the eventual nominee, potentially giving Democratic candidate Roy Cooper an advantage in the general election. For now, Lara has not publicly announced plans to run for the seat. Recently, she has reportedly expressed interest in the Florida Senate seat expected to be vacated by Marco Rubio, who has been nominated as the next Secretary of State.
