A Florida bellwether county that previously supported President Joe Biden is trending red as of Tuesday afternoon as it moves in former President Donald Trump’s direction. If this shift continues, it could put Florida even further out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris and down-ballot Democrats like U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). Republican voters in Duval County, which has historically leaned more left than Georgia, are now surpassing Democrats, according to Eric Daugherty, Assistant News Director at Florida’s Voice.
Although Trump lost the county in 2020, it is now showing signs of leaning back in his direction. Daugherty reported that over 41% of all ballots cast in Duval County are for Republicans, representing a net gain of 3.1%. In contrast, Democrats have secured just 38.4% of the vote, a significant decline from the 51% of Duval County voters who supported Biden in 2020. Uncommitted voters, independents, and those voting for five other presidential candidates account for 17.5% of the vote, a segment that appears to affect Democrats adversely. Daugherty noted that this development is “something to watch.”
? PRESIDENTIAL BELLWETHER ALERT: Duval County, Florida has voted to the left of Georgia in every recent U.S. presidential election.
Duval County TOTAL votes:
? REP: 41.4% (+3.1)
? DEM: 38.4%
? NPA: 17.5%Trump LOST Duval in 2020…. something to watch here.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Recent polls indicate that Trump has maintained a steady lead in Florida throughout his race against Harris, but the performance of Democrats further down the ballot could play a crucial role in determining which party controls the Senate in 2025. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has been leading Rep. Mucarsel-Powell, although by a narrower margin than Trump, and would greatly benefit from increased Republican turnout in Duval County, which includes the city of Jacksonville. In total, approximately half a million voters are up for grabs, with about 250,000 having supported Biden and around 232,000 favoring Trump four years ago, according to News4JAX.
Election forecaster Nate Silver recently assigned Republicans a 92% chance of gaining control of the Senate, highlighting likely victories in West Virginia and Montana as critical to the GOP securing 51 seats. Additionally, Republicans remain competitive in races against incumbent Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
For Trump, a victory in Duval County would represent a remarkable turnaround since leaving office. Similarly, Arizona’s Maricopa County seems poised for a Republican win after having supported Biden in 2020. Exit polls indicate that more than two-thirds of Election Day voters are backing Trump. As of 11:40 a.m. EST, 23,919 Republicans have cast ballots on Election Day, accounting for 42.5% of the total votes so far.
In contrast, only 11,324 Democrats have voted in Maricopa County, which includes the capital city of Phoenix, making up just over 20% of the votes cast on Tuesday. Meanwhile, in Nevada’s Clark County, home to Las Vegas, Democrats have lost support from Biden’s 54% victory four years ago, with Trump now leading in the most recent polls by margins ranging from 2 to 6 points.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.