Following the release of a significant New York Times/Siena College poll indicating a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the paper’s chief political analyst is cautioning liberal Americans to prepare for a potential surprise on Election Day. Trump has historically outperformed polling predictions in both 2016 and 2020, and Nate Cohn of the Times has pointed to a sign that may suggest another unexpected outcome for Democrats.
The survey, which included 7,879 likely voters across seven key battleground states, shows a closely contested race between Harris and Trump. Conducted via phone, the poll reveals Harris holding narrow leads in several states: three points in Nevada, two points each in North Carolina and Wisconsin, and a one-point advantage in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, the candidates are nearly tied, with Harris having a slight edge. Meanwhile, Trump is leading by a razor-thin margin in Michigan and holds a four-point lead in Arizona.
“Four years ago, the polls were thought to underestimate Mr. Trump because of nonresponse bias — in which his supporters were less likely to take surveys than demographically similar Biden supporters,” Cohn wrote in his analysis. “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again. We do a lot to account for this, but in the end, there are no guarantees.”
“The pattern is fairly similar across the battlegrounds: Democrats lead in early voting; Republicans lead with what remains, and in each case it’s not by the sweeping margins of four years ago, when the pandemic upended the usual early voting patterns,” Cohn continued. “There is a little bit of a leap of faith here for Democrats: They’re counting on a lot of people to vote on Election Day who didn’t in 2020 or 2022 … Their track records of voting give plenty of reason to think they will do so, but if not, the result will quickly look very different.”
FOX News contributor and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich discussed the current state of the 2024 presidential race, stating that President Biden’s comment referring to Trump supporters as “garbage” was intentional, stemming from his resentment toward Vice President Kamala Harris. He also accused her of becoming “hysterical” on the campaign trail as she also became more “exhausted.”
“What you’re watching is sort of like Custer’s last stand. I mean, these folks are all on the verge of a disaster. They’re running in circles they’re saying things that are hysterical, untrue, unbelievable, and if you watched Kamala earlier today, she’s just plain getting exhausted,” Gingrich told host Sean Hannity. “You know, she’s never campaigned. She’s never had to win anything. It’s all been given to her, and now suddenly, in the last week, she’s in — I suspect, beginning to realize she’s going to lose.”
Gingrich added: “And you’re going to see more and more desperation from now through next Tuesday as it really sinks in that this is over. Donald J. Trump’s going to be the next president, Kamala Harris is going to lose, and I assume either go back to San Francisco or maybe join uh the Obamas on some very fancy island. But the fact is that I think you’re going to see a desperation. I also believe personally, and I can’t prove this, but I believe that at some point about weeks ago, Jill and Joe Biden looked at each other and said, you know, if Joe’s the only person to ever beat Trump, that’s kind of an interesting legacy. And for the last couple of weeks, he has undercut her over and over.”
He noted further: “And think about that scene on the ellipse, 70,000 people, the vice president right in front of the White House. Do you see the president? Is he invited? Is he given dignity? Is he a guest? No, he’s hidden. You don’t think Joe Biden resented that? And so he says, oh, let me say something that’ll get people to pay attention like garbage. So he drowns her entire event, and we think that he did this by accident? I don’t. I think it was deliberate, and I think it worked.”
