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Trump Effect: GOP Outpaces Dem Voter Registrations In Deep Blue State

By ELECTION 2024

The Republican Party in a major blue state has managed to outpace their Democratic rivals in the deep blue state, surpassing Democrats in new voter registrations, likely due to the increasing popularity of former President Donald Trump. Voter registration data released on November 1 showed that the Republican Party of New Jersey gained 16,945 new registrations in October, more than doubling the Democratic Party’s total of just 6,015 registrations during the same period, according to a report from the New Jersey Globe.

Both major parties were overshadowed by a significant increase in “unaffiliated” registrations in October. In total, 44,484 newly registered voters either did not affiliate with a party or registered as unaffiliated last month. Despite the gains, Republicans still face a significant challenge in flipping the long-time Democratic stronghold during a presidential election year. As of November 1, 2024, New Jersey has a total of 6,727,358 registered voters, with 2,534,932 registered as Democrats and 1,628,633 registered with the GOP. Still, in Blue Jersey, any substantial gains by Republicans is a good thing and could be a sign of a coming sea change there, politically speaking.

While New Jersey has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, the GOP has succeeded in winning statewide elections and making others much closer than expected. Republican Chris Christie served two terms as governor after winning the election in 2010 and was once considered a leading presidential contender during his first term. However, he left office with record-low approval ratings.

In 2021, New Jersey Republicans also surprised political pundits and pollsters when incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy narrowly secured re-election. Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli ultimately lost by less than three percentage points in a race that was projected to favor Democrats by 10 points according to polling averages at the time.

While the chances of New Jersey flipping red remain low, positive registration and early voting trends could provide Republicans with hope for Southeastern Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philadelphia suburbs. Republicans have managed to achieve an unprecedented lead in in-person early voting, which will continue through November 3. However, Democrats currently hold a significant 40-point advantage in mail-in ballot returns.

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