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Expert Finds Trump-Friendly Early Vote Trend Biggest Swing State

By ELECTION 2024

With Election Day just over a week away, voters are already turning out in large numbers for early voting across swing states. The trend is not only reshaping campaign dynamics but also offering crucial insights into how the November 5 contest might unfold. As data continues to emerge, Pennsylvania has become a key state to watch, particularly with significant shifts in absentee and mail-in voting patterns.

Election expert Michael Pruser from DecisionDesk HQ highlighted an intriguing trend in Pennsylvania’s early voting turnout in a recent social media update. Pruser shared data indicating a notable increase in absentee voting across party lines, with Democrats leading by a considerable margin. According to his report, Democrats have returned 819,112 ballots, while Republicans have submitted 438,017, followed by 145,778 from other voters. Despite the current Democratic advantage in early returns, Pruser emphasized the importance of monitoring the crucial shifts that may occur in the coming days.



“The way this is going to work down the stretch is simple. Tomorrow is the last day to request a ballot (in person or online), so the Wednesday report will be the last to show new requests. When that stops, the GOP return rate goes flying because it is no longer bogged down with a significant addition of new, unreturned requests daily. The last five PA reports (Thursday – Wednesday morning) will show R return rate gains of at least 0.5%,” Pruser noted on X. “The margin of returned ballots will continue to tighten. We’ve gone from an expected return rate of D+ high to mid-20s last week to D+ low to mid-20s today. This is an accelerating trend, just like PA voter registrations, and will be capped by total requests on Wednesday.”

This acceleration is significant for both campaigns. Pennsylvania has been a crucial battleground in recent presidential elections, narrowly swinging toward Joe Biden in 2020 after Trump’s slim victory in 2016. With both campaigns heavily focusing on their ground game efforts, the evolving turnout dynamics could shape their strategies in the final stretch.

The trend Pruser highlights is not confined to Pennsylvania. He notes that similar changes are occurring in states like Nevada and North Carolina, where early voting turnout is favoring Republicans more than in previous elections. He attributes this shift to changes in voter registration, demographic shifts, and other factors contributing to a more “Republican-friendly environment.”

He added: “For me, it’s a validation of what we see everywhere. The data will not show you anything to do with who votes for who, but we do know the electorate is as Republican as it’s ever been. NV and NC will likely see tilt R turnouts for the first time in a Presidential election.”





Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.