A traditionally blue New England state may turn red on November 5th as enthusiasm for former President Donald Trump continues to expand the electoral map further than any Republican in modern history. New Hampshire could swing in Trump’s favor next week, according to a poll conducted by Praecones Analytica and the New Hampshire Journal.
Newsweek reported that Trump has gained a 0.4% lead over Harris, with 50.2% support compared to the vice president’s 49.8%. The survey, which included 622 registered voters, was conducted from October 24th to 26th, capturing most of the campaign season’s significant moments, except for Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday night. If these results hold, Trump would become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the Granite State since George W. Bush in 2000.
Trump has not led in a single New Hampshire poll since late July, when the same consortium indicated he was ahead of President Joe Biden by a single point, according to FiveThirtyEight. The fact that the beleaguered Democrat managed to maintain his lead nearly a month after delivering the worst debate performance of his life suggests how little the Trump campaign believed New Hampshire was in play. However, with Harris’s numbers steadily declining and momentum shifting toward Trump in the final week, Republicans must consider whether to redirect resources from the traditional seven swing states to make a push in New Hampshire.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Praecones Analytica / @NewHampJournal poll:Trump 50.2% (+0.4)
Harris 49.8%622 RV, 10/24-26
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2024
In down-ballot races, New Hampshire Republicans are feeling optimistic about Kelly Ayotte’s prospects in the governor’s race, where she leads Democrat Joyce Craig 52-48%. Ayotte, a former U.S. senator who lost her reelection bid in 2016, has maintained modest but consistent leads throughout the year. In her previous campaign, Ayotte distanced herself from Trump, publicly denouncing him over the Access Hollywood tape, ultimately losing to now-Sen. Maggie Hassan. This time around, however, Ayotte has been more openly supportive of Trump, urging his campaign to invest in New Hampshire and recently achieving a significant victory in the GOP primary against a more conservative opponent.
Betting markets indicate that Harris has an 80% chance of winning the state; however, other polling firms are showing a tightening race that could change the presidential contest. Last week, Emerson College reported that Harris’s lead is just 3%. In response, Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has expressed confidence about his chances in the state. “Granite Staters will not vote for dangerously liberal Kamala Harris, whose policies as vice president have increased our energy bills and created the most unaffordable housing market in New Hampshire’s history,” Leavitt told Newsweek.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.