As Election Day approaches, Democrats find themselves in a challenging political position. A newly released HarrisX/Forbes poll shows former President Donald Trump with a newfound lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, marking a significant shift in momentum just days before voters head to the polls.
The national poll indicates Trump leading Harris 51% to 49% in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters leaning toward one candidate. This data represents a substantial six-point shift from just last month when Harris had a four-point lead. In a broader four-way race that includes third-party candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein, Trump still holds a slight edge, leading 49% to 48%. The poll also provides insights into the undecided electorate: when voters have the option to choose “don’t know” or remain unsure, Trump and Harris are tied at 47% each. The tight race continues in a two-way matchup as well, with Trump leading by just one percentage point, 49% to 48%, among likely voters.
The poll indicates that up to 12% of likely voters are still weighing their options, with 4% remaining undecided in a two-way contest. Among registered voters, the uncertainty is even higher, with 18% not fully committed. Harris’s campaign, which was once buoyed by a steady lead, is now facing a challenging reality check. Her team has scrambled to refocus their messaging and boost voter turnout, particularly among younger voters and women—two demographics crucial for Democratic success. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign is capitalizing on the moment, using the poll as evidence of growing momentum for his candidacy and working to convert leaners into solid supporters.
The HarrisX/Forbes poll is the latest in a series of surveys indicating that the 2024 race is tightening. Analysts attribute this shift to a combination of factors, including rising economic concerns, national security issues, and voter fatigue. Additionally, third-party candidates like West and Stein, although polling in single digits, may create a potential spoiler effect, particularly for Harris, as disillusioned Democrats consider alternative options.
With early voting already underway in several states, both campaigns are intensifying their efforts to sway undecided voters. Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, described the election to Forbes as a “dynamic, competitive race to the very end,” noting that the outcome will depend on several factors: “It will come down to both turnout and, importantly, the X-factor of the 18 percent of swing voters who still say they may change their mind.”
