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Voting Shift In Historically Blue Counties Favoring Trump

By Updated: ELECTION 2024

With the 2024 election just two weeks away, new early voting data from key Florida counties reveals a noticeable shift that could alter the presidential race. Traditionally Democratic strongholds, these counties are showing unexpected Republican leads in early voting figures—a potential advantage for former President Donald Trump as he campaigns against Vice President Kamala Harris in this critical lead-up to Election Day.

The data indicates that Republicans have made gains in several prominent Florida counties, with early voting results highlighting surprising Republican leads in historically blue areas. Here’s the current breakdown as of day 2 of early voting:



  • Duval County: R+4.6

  • Miami-Dade County: R+12.8

  • Palm Beach County: R+17.2

  • Hillsborough County: R+15.4

  • Pinellas County: R+25.5

These numbers sharply contrast with past elections, where Democrats typically dominated early voting in these areas. This shift suggests a potential change in voter sentiment in a state critical for securing a path to the presidency. Notably, Miami-Dade’s swing to a Republican lead of nearly 13 points is significant, as it has been a reliable Democratic stronghold for years, largely due to its large Hispanic and African-American populations.

Trump’s campaign efforts to engage Hispanic voters appear to be yielding positive results, with messaging focused on economic opportunities and a clear stance against socialist policies resonating within some Latino communities. In Palm Beach, Hillsborough, and Pinellas counties, Republican leads are even more pronounced. These areas, often viewed as bellwethers for the state, reflect broader voter concerns, particularly around economic security. Trump seems to have gained traction, especially among small business owners and retirees, who are key voting blocs in Florida.

In the 2020 election, Donald Trump secured the state with 51.2% of the vote compared to Joe Biden’s 47.9%, increasing his margin to 3.3% from 2016. His gains were particularly notable in Miami-Dade, where his messaging on the economy and opposition to socialism resonated with many Hispanic voters, including Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans. The support in South Florida was crucial to his victory.

In the 2016 election, Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in Florida, securing 49.0% of the vote compared to her 47.8%, resulting in a 1.2% margin. His success was bolstered by strong support among white working-class voters and non-college-educated whites, particularly in the Panhandle and central regions of the state. Clinton, on the other hand, struggled to replicate the level of Hispanic support that previous Democratic candidates had enjoyed, especially in Miami-Dade. In both elections, Trump’s strategy centered on mobilizing rural and suburban voters, highlighting Florida’s crucial role in his path to the White House. Consequently, Florida remains a stronghold for Republicans.

At his Miami-area golf club on Tuesday, Trump hosted a roundtable focused on engaging Latino voters. With Election Day just two weeks away, more than 18 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.





Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.