According to insiders close to the Harris campaign, the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which has supported Democratic presidents for the past two decades, is showing signs of erosion. NBC News reported that senior campaign staffers are raising concerns about declining results in Michigan, a crucial battleground state that narrowly went for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.
However, the state’s vibrant Arab-American population has largely remained disengaged, disillusioned by Harris’s increasingly vocal support for Israel and her readiness to condemn public disruptions by pro-Palestinian activists. This situation, coupled with skepticism among younger voters essential for strong turnout in areas like Ann Arbor, is putting Michigan in play for Trump, according to insiders.
The recent discussions within the Harris campaign involve considering a scenario where Wisconsin and Michigan go to Trump while Pennsylvania goes to Harris. Even if Pennsylvania is a critical win for Harris, she would still fall short of the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to win the election, according to aides. “There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” a senior Harris official told the outlet. They and two other sources all emphasized their deepest concern is Michigan, a state that should not typically be such a tough hill for Democrats to climb in a presidential year.
A spokesperson for the Harris campaign swiftly dismissed the anonymous concerns regarding their Michigan numbers, highlighting recent polls that show the vice president with a narrow lead in the state. “We absolutely are competing to win Michigan,” Harris spokesperson Lauren Hitt said, pointing to Harris’s Monday night town hall with former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney. “We think we will win Michigan.” Hitt said the same about Wisconsin and that she sees no signs of slippage in the polls there. The pervasive fear of losing steam in swing states has Harris insiders also bringing up results in North Carolina. “Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” one anonymous campaign source told NBC News.
North Carolina has experienced significant turmoil over the past month, including destabilization from Hurricane Helene and the collapse of Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson’s campaign, both of which have complicated turnout efforts for the presidential campaigns. However, Trump appears to be emerging ahead, leading by 0.9%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Additionally, in September, the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could have his name removed from the ballot, which is seen as another advantage for Trump.
