With just two weeks remaining until Election Day, a new poll of Arab-American voters has significantly impacted the presidential race. Conducted by YouGov and commissioned by the Arab News Research & Studies Unit, the poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a narrow 2-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab-American voters. This development is notable as the Middle East conflict has been a focal point in the presidential campaigns since last year.
The poll suggests a strong expected turnout, with 87% of Arab-Americans planning to vote in the upcoming election. The issue of Palestine remains a top priority for many respondents, which may be contributing to Trump’s slight lead. His administration’s past policy approaches to the Middle East, in contrast to Harris’, appear to resonate with this voter bloc, particularly as the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict continues to dominate the headlines.
The survey, conducted between September 26 and October 1, surveyed 500 Arab-Americans nationwide. While the poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.93%, it provides valuable insights into the candidates’ standings within this crucial demographic, which could influence outcomes in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Arab-American populations are substantial.
The poll also delves into voters’ broader views on issues related to the Middle East. When asked which presidential administrations would be most likely to successfully resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict, respondents were divided: 39% favored Trump, while 33% supported Harris. Jill Stein, running as a Green Party candidate, received 8% support. Notably, 11% of respondents indicated that neither major party candidate would effectively manage Middle East policies.
Additionally, 38% believe a two-state solution is the most viable path forward for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Arab-American voters seem divided on how U.S. foreign policy should evolve under a new administration. For example, 41% think the next administration should focus on diplomacy with Iran, while 32% prefer maximum diplomatic pressure and increased sanctions. Only 4% advocate for military intervention.
Another poll by the Arab American Institute (AAI) highlights a strikingly divided Arab American electorate ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The poll indicates that Trump and Harris are virtually tied among Arab American voters, with 42% backing Trump and 41% supporting Harris. Concerns regarding the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza crisis have caused a significant shift in Arab American support, resulting in the community being evenly split at 38% for both Republicans and Democrats
