A leading election forecasting model is starting to indicate that former President Donald Trump is in a strong position with two weeks remaining before Election Day. The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ now estimates Trump has a 52% chance of winning on November 5th, marking a significant shift from previous results that showed the candidates in a dead heat on October 17th. As a sign of the favorable outlook for Trump’s camp, the GOP is projected to gain control of both the U.S. House and Senate, according to DDHQ models. In 2020, the organization gave President Biden an 87.6% chance of victory.
Following third-quarter fundraising reports indicating that Republicans are raising funds at a strong pace, pollsters are projecting a 71% chance of the Senate flipping to Republican control, while House Republicans have a 54% chance of maintaining their hold on the lower chamber. In the Senate, Republicans are almost certain to secure the West Virginia seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and are optimistic about winning the Montana seat occupied by vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). DDHQ predicts that no Republican-held seat is expected to be gained by the Democrats.
Trump’s lead marks the first time the respected forecaster has given him the advantage since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race. The initial forecast, released on August 20th, showed Harris with a 53% lead over Trump’s 47%, a lead that has rapidly diminished as the race approaches its final month. A lackluster media strategy and several troubling national interviews have raised concerns among Democrats regarding the vice president’s ability to maintain her composure before the election. On the campaign trail, Trump has criticized his rival as “not smart,” “dumb,” and a “liar,” referencing her frequently mentioned but unproven claim about working several summers at McDonald’s.
In the Electoral College, Trump has garnered 272 voters in DDHQ’s latest model, marking the first time he has exceeded the 270 threshold necessary to win the presidency. The latest results indicate that some of the most contested areas in the country, including a toss-up congressional district in Maine and two in Nebraska, now favor Trump.
Supporters of the MAGA movement may feel encouraged by the increasingly conservative predictions for various swing states. In battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump has established clear leads. Notably, in Nevada, a state that hasn’t supported a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, Trump is showing a 7-point lead in a recent poll.
In the crucial state of Pennsylvania, which remains a toss-up in DDHQ’s model, the trend is slightly leaning toward Trump. This indicates that the Democrats’ strong ground game is struggling to connect with voters who typically align with their party. Local Democrats have expressed frustration that the Harris campaign has not utilized their expertise while canvassing in Philadelphia. Additionally, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has undermined their message, even going so far as to predict that President Trump will win his home state.
