There are new indications that Vice President Kamala Harris is on a path to lose her race against former President Donald Trump. A number of vulnerable swing-state Democratic U.S. Senate nominees are beginning to distance themselves from the Harris campaign, pivoting to praise former President Donald Trump as they work to safeguard their own electoral prospects.
An analysis of major TV ads from the campaigns of Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) shows them portraying the former president in a favorable or at least neutral light, indicating a willingness to collaborate with Trump if he wins in November. The shift is particularly striking for Slotkin and Baldwin, who have previously been vocal in condemning Trump and supporting his various criminal prosecutions. Today, however, both are retreating from their staunchly progressive positions on electric vehicle mandates, global trade, and the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs.
“Casey Supports Trump’s Trade Order” notes one headline from the Pennsylvania Democrat’s latest ad, highlighting how vulnerable the three-term incumbent has become in this election cycle. Polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris, who has openly reversed her promise to end the Senate filibuster to pass the Green New Deal. Currently, she supports domestic energy production and fracking, both of which are extremely popular among Pennsylvania voters. Additionally, the Keystone State’s other senator, John Fetterman (D-PA), has stirred unease among fellow Democrats by publicly predicting that Trump will win the must-have state.
In Michigan, Rep. Slotkin is locked in a fierce battle with former GOP congressman Mike Rogers after spending years appealing to progressive voters about the benefits of electric vehicle (EV) mandates. Currently, Slotkin’s television ads assert that she will support “no electric car mandates,” likely in response to widespread unrest among union auto workers who fear job losses due to automation during the industry’s transition. Former President Donald Trump has actively courted auto workers, even though the industry’s union endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. This strategy seems to be paying off; in Pennsylvania, Trump is either tied or slightly ahead of Harris in recent polling.
Baldwin, meanwhile, is seeking her third six-year term on a platform that embraces bipartisan collaboration with Trump if he is elected. In a recent ad, her campaign features white, male manufacturing workers and business owners expressing concerns that foreign competitors like China have been “lowballing their prices” to the detriment of American industry—a sentiment that would resonate with anyone who has heard President Trump speak during his visits to Michigan. “We can’t let China steal American jobs,” Baldwin says in the ad before one of the men declares she “got President Trump to sign her made-in-America bill.”
Let’s check in on Democrat Senate candidates in the blue wall states:
Baldwin (WI): Putting Trump in her ads
Casey (PA): Putting Trump in his ads
Slotkin (MI): Making ads against EV mandates.They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought Kamala was winning. pic.twitter.com/yN1LZTFjXJ
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 18, 2024
Together, the three Democrats represent influential perspectives on the state of the race in the Democrats’ “blue wall,” the collection of Midwestern states they hope will prevent a Trump tidal wave from sweeping them away in November. All signs suggest cracks in this foundation as Trump secures local endorsements while Harris struggles to gain traction among key segments of the progressive electorate, who are dissatisfied with her shift toward the center.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.