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Trump Takes New Sizeable Lead Over Harris In Key Election Metric

By Updated: ELECTION 2024

The political betting market is increasingly optimistic about former President Donald Trump’s chances in November. Just a week after the former president gained a new lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, fresh bets are pushing his predictions to new heights, particularly in several key swing states ahead of the November 5th election. In Arizona, analysts forecast a Trump victory by a significant 68-32% margin; in Georgia, he holds a similar 64-36% lead; and in North Carolina—currently embroiled in a growing FEMA disaster relief controversy—Trump now leads Harris 63-37%.

Compounding the challenges for the Democrats is bettors’ belief that the “blue wall” will not hold in Michigan and Wisconsin. In those states, Trump is predicted to win by comparatively narrower margins of 54-46% and 52-48%, respectively. However, in crucial Pennsylvania, Trump holds a significant 10-point lead over Harris, with a forecast of 55-45% among those placing bets. The only state still leaning toward Harris is Nevada, and just barely, as she shows a 51-49% lead among bettors. Yet even there, recent polling indicates Trump is ahead by as much as 5%.



Overall, 57% of bettors are now predicting a Trump victory in November, marking the largest lead he has maintained since Harris launched her campaign in August. At the peak of his lead over President Joe Biden, nearly 3 in 4 bettors believed his victory was inevitable.

Tensions have reportedly risen within the Democratic camp as Election Day nears, with ten insiders informing Axios of a growing rift between Harris’s staff and President Joe Biden’s White House team. While Biden’s aides are publicly backing Harris’s candidacy, many are still adjusting to their shift from leadership to support roles after Biden’s decision not to seek re-election. “They’re too much in their feelings,” a close ally of Harris told Axios, referring to the president’s team. This sentiment is reportedly echoed by some within the White House as well.

Members of Harris’s team have reportedly voiced their frustration that senior White House aides are not effectively aligning Biden’s public engagements and messaging with the needs of her campaign. A notable instance of this misalignment occurred last Friday when Biden held an unscheduled press conference in the White House briefing room at the same time Harris was set to speak at an event in Michigan, leading to reduced television coverage for her, according to reports.

Tensions have also emerged within Harris’s campaign, especially between veterans of Biden’s original campaign team and recent additions from Harris’s circle. Following Harris’s securing of the Democratic nomination, there were disagreements about whether Biden’s primary TV surrogates would continue or be replaced by new faces, as reported by two sources to Axios. Ultimately, Harris’s team prevailed, resulting in new surrogates appearing more frequently on television.

Earlier in the week, after Harris publicly criticized Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for not taking her call regarding hurricane response, Biden unexpectedly praised DeSantis for his cooperation and graciousness, further complicating their messaging. A source familiar with the situation informed Axios that Biden had not been made aware of Harris’s prior comments about DeSantis.

Meanwhile, Biden has been vocal about recent successes, such as a strong jobs report and the resolution of a longshoremen’s strike, while Harris has focused on direct economic issues like inflation that impact voters’ daily lives. An individual associated with Harris’ campaign pointed out to Axios, “The White House is lacking someone in the room thinking first and foremost about how things would affect the campaign.”

The friction extends to staff interactions as well. Harris’s team has been striving to increase the staffing in the vice president’s office to meet growing demands, but they have faced delays from the White House in approving these additions, according to two insiders.





Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.