Recent polling data paints a bleak picture for the Democratic Party and its chances of maintaining control of the Senate in 2024. Leaked internal polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) indicates that key races in battleground states are heavily favoring Republican candidates, providing the GOP with a clear path to reclaim the upper chamber.
The memo, obtained by POLITICO and authored by NRSC strategist Jason Thielman, outlines recent polling in major Senate races nationwide. The results are promising for Republicans, revealing competitive races in traditionally Democratic strongholds and showing significant advantages for their candidates in states like Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
In Montana, polling data indicates that Republican Tim Sheehy is comfortably leading Democrat incumbent Jon Tester by eight points, with a 50% to 42% advantage. Sheehy’s favorability has surged, showing a net increase of 11 points since July. In contrast, Tester’s approval rating has dipped below water, with 48% of voters viewing him unfavorably. As a long-time Democratic stalwart, Tester now faces limited opportunities to reshape his image, with only 1% of voters unfamiliar with him and just 5% holding no opinion. Republican Jim Justice is also expected to flip a Senate seat in West Virginia red as he seeks to replace retiring Sen. Joe Manchin.
Ohio’s Senate race also presents challenges for Democrats, with Republican Bernie Moreno holding a narrow 2-point lead over incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown. Moreno’s rise comes amid strong support for Donald Trump in the state, where Trump leads Kamala Harris by 11 points in the presidential race. Brown, once regarded as a Democratic powerhouse, is witnessing a decline in his favorability, with 47% of Ohio voters holding an unfavorable view of him, despite his record-high spending of over $25 million in this campaign.
Meanwhile, Republicans are encountering another tight contest in Wisconsin, where Republican candidate Eric Hovde has edged ahead with a 48% to 47% lead over incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin. Although Hovde’s lead is slim, it’s the first time he has surpassed Baldwin in internal polling. Baldwin’s approval ratings have suffered, with her favorability standing at 45%. As Hovde gains momentum, the GOP is optimistic about flipping this crucial seat in November.
h a 50% to 42% advantage. Sheehy’s favorability has surged, showing a net increase of 11 points since July. In contrast, Tester’s approval rating has dipped below water, with 48% of voters viewing him unfavorably. As a long-time Democratic stalwart, Tester now faces limited opportunities to reshape his image, with only 1% of voters unfamiliar with him and just 5% holding no opinion.
In Pennsylvania, Republican David McCormick is challenging Democrat incumbent Bob Casey. The latest polling shows Casey holding a slim 44% to 43% lead, with third-party candidates capturing 4% of the vote. Although Casey maintains a slight advantage, his negative ratings have risen, creating an opportunity for McCormick to appeal to undecided voters, especially since Trump has a commanding 57% to 27% lead among this group.
In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown is facing a tough challenge against incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen. Despite trailing by five points, Brown’s favorability has notably increased, with 49% of voters now viewing him positively, up from 35% in July. The race remains competitive as Brown’s momentum builds in the final weeks leading up to Election Day.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.